No. of Recommendations: 17
My approach right now is to have a high allocation to T-Bills and to own a few companies that I think are high quality. A small return on BRK-B would be better than a smaller return on the S&P 500.
Makes some sense.
My own strategy is safe, but simultaneously uncertain:
Berkshire's stock price has been tracking the average large-cap US company very closely for quite a while, especially on short time frames. The recent generous valuation levels seem to have nothing to do with Berkshire per se, but just money going into the US TINA market.
So...a bear market will come sooner or later. When it does, Berkshire will probably become very attractively valued for a while. At that point I dump my T-bills and once again back up the truck.
Listening to talking-head forecasts is a waste of time, but I have often found that the Bank Credit Analyst is somewhat better than a coin toss. They tend to watch the big money flows and figure out what that will lead to. One of their prominent analysts thinks the S&P 500 will hit 3800 at some point in 2025, which rather startled me. That would annoy the heck out of a lot of people, but not me! If it happened (ha!) and Berkshire dropped the same amount (which I rather doubt), BRK/B would be trading at under $300. Briefly.
Jim
