Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 12
Turkey, typically the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving meal, will be one of the biggest sticker shocks for consumers. Wholesale prices for a turkey have jumped 40% from a year ago, according to the Department of Agriculture. ——NPR
MAGA Thanksgiving to all!
No. of Recommendations: 6
Everything is going up. Tariffs, trade wars, and deporting a lot of our ag labor, is a recipe for higher prices at the grocery. And other stores (like auto parts...encountered that a month or so ago).
No. of Recommendations: 1
My turkey will be the same price as last year--zero since I got enough shopping points at my local supermarket in November to score a free turkey.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I didn't read the OP, but according to Wal-Mart:
https://www.walmart.com/browse/food/whole-turkeys/......turkeys are about 97 cents a pound.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/walmart-ceo-t......which was what they were in 2019.
Walmart CEO John Furner said turkey prices are down to 2019 levels, telling ABC's George Stephanopoulos this morning that the price of a Thanksgiving dinner for ten will be "down 25% from last year."
"Our turkey prices are all the way back to what they were in 2019-97 cents per pound," he said.They're just making stuff up now.
No. of Recommendations: 18
Fortunately, we don't have to rely on anecdotal evidence like whatever Wal-Mart is pricing their turkeys at (because WMT can use turkeys as a loss leader). The current news articles are based on the USDA assessment of nationwide turkey prices, across all retailers.
Per the current report (which is what was cited in the news coverage), they're expecting national average turkey prices to be about 133 cents per pound for 2025. That's up from about 103 cents per pound for 2024. We can look back to the exact same report in 2019, and we see that the price back then was 88.5 cents per pound.
The 40% figure is from USDA's projection of even higher turkey prices in Q4, expected to be about 155 cents per pound.
2025:
https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfic...2024:
https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfic...2019:
https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfic...So regardless of what WalMart might be doing, turkey will be significantly more expensive this year than last - and certainly more expensive than in 2019.
No. of Recommendations: 4
So regardless of what WalMart might be doing, turkey will be significantly more expensive this year than last - and certainly more expensive than in 2019.
He didn't read the original post; he was in too much of a hurry to start chattering.
No. of Recommendations: 9
Turkey prices up, coffee prices up, beef prices WAY-WAY up...
Trump's Scam Coin, also known as OFFICIAL TRUMP or TRUMP, is down -86% from its high.
And Melania's Scam Coin is down -98%! Ouch!
Welcome To Trumps America! Are we great again yet?
Facepalm...
No. of Recommendations: 2
So regardless of what WalMart might be doing, turkey will be significantly more expensive this year than last - and certainly more expensive than in 2019.With all due respect to your post and the USDA, it seems Turkey is a loss leader for many companies. On Amazon you can get it for 69 cents a pound.
At Target it's 99 cents a pound.
https://www.news5cleveland.com/money/consumer/turk...CLEVELAND — A recent USDA report found that turkey prices could be up as much as 40% this year, driven by supply pressures and higher wholesale costs.
Experts said the bird flu outbreaks earlier this year hit turkey farms particularly hard, leading to fewer birds available and pushing wholesale prices higher.
“It’s really hit turkey farms hard,” said Dr. David Anderson, professor and extension economist at Texas A&M. “So that’s really part of producing less turkey this year than last year. It’s contributing to much higher wholesale prices.”
Grocers in Northeast Ohio are aggressively competing to offer the lowest prices at the register. Some are lower than last year. This week, the cheapest turkey price identified in News 5's “Don’t Waste Your Money” price tracker was 49 cents per pound at Meijer, followed by 69 cents per pound at Dave’s Markets. Several stores have imposed quantity limits, typically allowing one or two turkeys per customer.
Food experts said shoppers shouldn’t hesitate to make the most of these deals. Frozen turkeys remain significantly less expensive than fresh ones, and some of the fresh birds that will end up on Thanksgiving tables are still on farms today.
No. of Recommendations: 11
With all due respect to your post and the USDA, it seems Turkey is a loss leader for many companies. On Amazon you can get it for 69 cents a pound.
At Target it's 99 cents a pound.And I'm sure in year's past, there were other individual retailers that offered certain turkeys at prices below the going rate as a loss leader as well.
The point is that "turkey prices" - meaning the prices one pays for turkey
generally across all retailers across the nation - have gone up a lot. That does not mean every retailer's price has gone up, but it means that turkey prices
generally have gone up. Because of a supply shock, which has caused prices to rise. Which is inflation, BTW: not all inflation is caused by changes in the money supply, as you can learn here if you're interested:
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explain...
No. of Recommendations: 1
Turkeys are more pricey this year as a direct impact of the bird flu.
Based on that, prices should normalize next year.
No. of Recommendations: 2
My turkey will be the same price as last year--zero since I got enough shopping points at my local supermarket in November to score a free turkey.
What is the opportunity cost? What could you do with those points, if you didn't use them for a bird? Does the bird take more points than it did last year? If so, what other things must you do without this year, that you could use remaining points for last year?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 13
From your link:
Experts said the bird flu outbreaks earlier this year hit turkey farms particularly hard, leading to fewer birds available and pushing wholesale prices higher.
Is that the same bird flu that caused MAGA heads to explode because egg prices went up and Faux News ran the story 24x7 blaming Biden which caused endless yammering by the right wing on this board about inflation?
As the old saying goes, what’s good for the Hen is good for the Tom.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Beef is up due to screwworm impacting the supply.
However, every good ProGlib should be very happy that beef is more expensive now. Eating meat is bad for the environment and at least in the USA, beef consumption is excessive, generally speaking.
Fortunately, in economics there is a concept called "substitution" when prices go higher of certain commodities.
For example, in the current environment, if beef is too pricey, the consumer can substitute other adequate sources of protein.
WalMart turkeys (a loss leader per albaby1) are a good deal. Stock up on some turkeys put them in the deep freeze and try some new recipes instead of all that beef.
Or, tofu or other forms of soy protein. If China buys less much soybeans than they promised, that means the domestic supply should be high, presumably leading to price reductions for the domestic consumer.
You have to buy the specials. That's the way it's always been. Be a smart shopper and be opportunistic. Be flexible.
Beef too expensive for your budget? Eat tofu.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The point is that "turkey prices" - meaning the prices one pays for turkey generally across all retailers across the nation - have gone up a lot.
...depending on if you buy fresh or frozen, with the fresh supply still impacted by the bird flu outbreak earlier this year.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Hi Steve,
The opportunity cost is not very significant since the alternatives to the free turkey are a frozen stouffers lasagna or a bone-in ham.
The lasagna is OK but because it's frozen, it's easy to overcook the top layer.
The ham is a pain in the neck to deal with, I mean cutting around a bone is just more trouble than it's worth, and they have a little more fat on them than I care for.
But this is our regular supermarket so it's a total freebie for us.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Turkeys are more pricey this year as a direct impact of the bird flu
I’m a guessin’- you’re probably right.
Same reason eggs were so expensive last November.
No. of Recommendations: 2
My turkey will be the same price as last year--zero since I got enough shopping points at my local supermarket in November to score a free turkey! MARCO
You traded your privacy for a turkey?
Do you remember the day you sold your soul?
No. of Recommendations: 1
Beef is up due to screwworm impacting the supply.
Yeah, that’s the ticket.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Trading my soul for a free turkey from the supermarket means I scammed them, big time. So a great deal for yours truly.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Trading my soul for a free turkey from the supermarket means I scammed them, big time. So a great deal for yours truly.
Well, you just said you got something for nothing, so congratulations…. I guess.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Dr. Faustus sold his soul to Mephistopheles for fame and fortune.
Marco sold his for a turkey.
“It was nothing”, he said with a smile.
No. of Recommendations: 6
But this is our regular supermarket so it's a total freebie for us.
I feel like you're smart enough to know this already, but just in case: those "free" things that you buy with points aren't actually "free". You're still paying for them, just in a different sequence.
To illustrate: would you rather buy 10 cups of coffee for $2 apiece (none "free"), or buy 9 cups of coffee for $3 apiece, accumulating points along the way and getting the 10th cup for "free"?
No. of Recommendations: 0
I think I got a way better deal than Dr. Faustus.
Maybe a poet like Goiter should write a play about me?
Proposed Title: "Filet of Soul"
No. of Recommendations: 0
Carpian,
I guess you're saying the supermarket spreads the cost of the free turkeys it gives out among the prices it charges for everything else.
However, since I do not get any discount if I do NOT get a turkey (or free ham, or free lasagna), there is zero marginal cost to me for accepting the free turkey (actually it's a negative marginal cost since I am getting something of value for zero additional cost that I would be paying for anyway); we do not shop primarily at this supermarket to get the free turkey, and would continue to do so even without the free turkey.
As it is with many issues in tax planning, it is the marginal cost of the turkey that is the focal point.
No. of Recommendations: 2
To illustrate: would you rather buy 10 cups of coffee for $2 apiece (none "free"), or buy 9 cups of coffee for $3 apiece, accumulating points along the way and getting the 10th cup for "free"?
All true.
Still, your hormonal system gets a pleasurable jolt when you get that 10th cup of coffee (or bag of freeze dried dogfood…..or Thanksgiving turkey) for “free”- even though your rational brain knows you are getting slightly scammed.
And arguing the point with the cashier just makes you look like a fool, in addition to pissing off the customers waiting in the check-out line behind you (especially if they, like you, are holding turkeys)
No. of Recommendations: 0
The opportunity cost is not very significant since the alternatives to the free turkey are a frozen stouffers lasagna or a bone-in ham.
Thanks for the clarification. So a restricted range of options, and a "use it or lose it" situation?
The ham is a pain in the neck to deal with,
The last place I worked, gave out hams at Christmas. Frankly, I'm not crazy about ham, but I had several coworkers with big tribes, for which one of those hams was not really enough. So, I would tell my coworkers if any of them wanted my ham, they were welcome to it. One girl was slow on the uptake, so yipped at me after I had promised the ham to someone else. I licensed myself for one of of the Steve favorite phrase "no matter what I do, I get yipped at".
I used to throw a frozen pizza in the oven for T-day and/or Christmas, but I've gotten away from that in recent years. Now, it's "bachelor chow", like any other day.
Steve.
"Steve favorite phrases", in no particular order
-no matter what I do, I get yipped at
-procrastination is a virtue
-falsely accused again
-in the fullness of time (pinched from "Yes Minister")
No. of Recommendations: 0
marco100 favorite phrases:
"I am not a crook"
"It's morning in America"
"Everything is fully under control. There is no need to panic."
"Honey your boobs are just the right size. Most men aren't attracted to women with really big ones."
No. of Recommendations: 0
marco100 favorite phrases:
How often do you get to use any of those? I had to license my podmates, to use one of my phrases once or twice a month.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well I only used that last phrase I mentioned once with my wife.
...Woke up in the E/R...
Learned my lesson...
No. of Recommendations: 2
Newspaper on the counter at the hotel in Phoenix where I'm staying tonight had the caption under a photo of a frozen turkey: Thanksgiving dinner to be cheaper this year than last year
Huh? Well, Phoenix is a MAGA city, so probably got their 'facts' from Trump or FOX 'news'.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Everything is going up. Tariffs, trade wars, and deporting a lot of our ag labor, is a recipe for higher prices at the grocery. And other stores (like auto parts...encountered that a month or so ago).
Yah, but I remember Krugman telling us that we won't feel effects until larger tariffs kick in, and inflation is slowly ascending. By this time next year we'll probably be looking at 4% or more and I'm crossing my fingers that there's no recession, but I don't think that'll help at all.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Turkeys are more pricey this year as a direct impact of the bird flu
He looked at AI. :)
No. of Recommendations: 4
"Thanksgiving dinner to be cheaper this year than last year"
Huh? Well, Phoenix is a MAGA city, so probably got their 'facts' from Trump or FOX 'news'.
Sounds like the old joke "how long does it take Bill Gates to replace a light bulb? He doesn't. He declares darkness a new standard"
That's what Walmart did: redefine what constitutes "Thanksgiving dinner". My local grocery store used to define a bag of potato chips as 16 ounces. Now it defines a bag as 7.7 ounces.
We live in a world of perpetual gaslighting.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 6
Experts said the bird flu outbreaks earlier this year hit turkey farms particularly hard, leading to fewer birds available and pushing wholesale prices higher.
Okay, that explains turkeys, now do...
Coffee: Prices have increased significantly, up nearly 19-21% in the year to September 2025, partly due to a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, a major supplier.
Beef/Veal: Prices are up more than 14% over the past year. Ground beef prices were nearly $8 per pound in August 2025, up from $7.11 in January.
Orange Juice: Prices have jumped 29% year-on-year.
Bananas: Prices for this typically stable item increased by 4.9% from April to August 2025, an unusual jump for a product almost entirely imported and subject to new tariffs.
Apparel: Prices have seen increases around 8.99 percentage points relative to pre-tariff trends.
Furniture/Household Textiles: Imported furniture, which is heavily reliant on imports, has seen prices go up significantly, by about 6.5% and 6.2% respectively relative to pre-tariff trends.
Televisions and Toys: Both have seen price increases (around 3.1% and 2.5% respectively since April 2025), breaking a long-standing downward trend in prices for these goods.
