No. of Recommendations: 18
Looking out to the end of 2026, book value could top $540,000 per class A share, Barron’s estimates...Always good to have a baseline range of expectations. FWIW, some figures I have pencilled in for book per share in the next few quarters
Usual Weaker Slow
2026-12 497600 495100 492700
2026-03 510000 505000 500100
2026-06 522800 515100 507600
2026-09 535800 525400 515200
2026-12 549200 536000 522900
These three scenarios are based on nominal growth rates of "normal" 2.5%/quarter (10.4%/year), "weaker" 2.0%/quarter (8.2%/year), and "slow" 1.5%/quarter (6.1%/year). Subtract inflation for estimated real returns. USD monetary inflation (the portion not involving idiosyncratic changes to specific items) has been running very close to 2.8% for 2.5 years.
Obviously bear markets tend to depress share prices, so book per share dips. I blithely assume those dips are transient and meaningless for share value beyond a slowing in the growth rate for a while.
The figure from Barrons is just a hair below my "business as usual" estimate above, so I wouldn't argue. Other than that they elide the distinction between currently 1.4 times book a year hence and the range of price-to-KNOWN-book range in recent years. The recent historical range of the ratio of current price to book value a year later is not 1.3 to 1.8.
However, the general notion is true: current price is not at all unreasonable if you don't mind good chances of one flat year if valuation multiples go back to recently typical. If that doesn't excite you, we are at a point that someone writing cash backed puts expiring a year from now would likely get either an attractive entry point in terms of future evaluation multiple (say, 1.27 to 1.36 times future book), or a 10%+/year cash return counting the interest on the cash till then, both of which sound not terrible.
Jim
