I sold a few DG Jan24 200 puts for $14 today. Either I make ~12% on the capital at risk or I buy at 14.9x next years estimated earnings. Usually I'd like to get at least 15% on capital at risk but I'd really like to own DG at that price.

DG does look a little cheaper than usual.

For a quick sense of scale, this gives a quick snapshot of typical valuation levels in the last decade or so, Value Line style.
http://www.stonewellfunds.com/DGmetrics.png

The metrics for a given date are for the financial period ending on that date, then interpolated linearly.
Therefore there is a bit of crystal ball effect...the financial figure shown isn't known till maybe 7 weeks later.

The final data point uses yesterday's closing price of $203.61

Compared to the whole decade of history, that's 6-8% cheaper than recent years on all three metrics.
Compared to the (more exuberant) history only since September 2019 it's 16-22% cheaper than recent years on these three metrics.
The higher recent valuations recently weren't nonsensical...net margins averaged around 5.5% in the first half of that graph and 6.5% in the last half.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.