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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: anchak   😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: A New High Price Screen
Date: 07/26/24 4:54 PM
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First .... We need to be aligned on the premise that High Price ( combined with other safeguarding factors) - should tend to lead you to better firms. And this is amply clear from the filtered list!

The questions are 2 critical items

(a) Is the premise to hold a Top X% tile price stock till it splits - which in essence seems to be the screen's performance. This outcome is of course not guaranteed - I would wager a majority of the past holds and exits are due to this option

If so, then its also incumbent to benchmark it to a simple 2 stock screen ie BRK-A and NVR ( Somehow 2 stocks which seem to have bucked the Split exit path)

(b) If not, ie the high price itself is a demarcation factor - then those stocks need to be eligible for picking forward irrespective of the Split adjusted price .... ie like Google should be ~$6800 stock. The Split can't be an exit condition.

My guess is that the way the screen is constructed now - it does (a) while completely obfuscating this KEY EXIT factor

Bob - on the ML ( specifically tree-class algos - but it also generally applies). No it wont learn the individual stocks price - but it would learn the differential boundary criteria of the underlying cohort - eg If we believe the current picks are OUTSTANDING firms - then the price demarcation is appx Price > $575. And if say all of this holds true( ie the set continues to dominate and doesnt alter at the top) and the stock market doubles in 2-3 years and you hold the model constant ...... that rule will throw any Stock with price > 575 into the mix. But if the cohort has remained constant and it also doubled ( with no Splits etc) - the threshold now has moved to $1150.

You just have to have the mechanism to embed/factor this indexing into the model

Best
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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