No. of Recommendations: 10
Yeah, whacking their entire command structure is unlikely to do anything.
I didn't say it wouldn't do anything. I said that we don't have much ability to shape what comes afterwards. If you want to have control over what replaces what you destroy, you can't do that with just air power. You would have to boots on the ground. And even then, consider the record. So we're mostly (if not entirely) leaving to chance and other forces what's going to happen here once we're done bombing.
The point for both Iran and Venezuela isn't Iran and Venezuela. The point is to isolate China and make life tougher for them. Which we've done, bigly.
But...have we? Again, we haven't changed the regime in Venezuela. We haven't made life tougher for China there. Maybe that's the goal going forward, but we haven't replaced the Venezuelan government with the opposition party, or a government more predisposed to be an ally of the U.S. Because we didn't have a replacement government on offer, we just kept the old one.
If we're limiting ourselves to air power, that's the most likely outcome in Iran right now as well - whoever comes after Khameini will be someone who's already got a considerable power base in the country and thus likely a part of the existing government. IOW, more on Team China than Team U.S.
Their main squeeze in South America? Gone.
Again - why do you keep thinking that any of this is true? We didn't change the government in Venezuela. We removed their leader, but the regime is otherwise entirely unchanged. How have they lost their main squeeze in South America? They lost influence in Argentina because the government in Argentina changed. But that didn't happen in Venezuela.
I think that's the argument that you keep overlooking. The Administration took out Maduro, but that doesn't change the government much, and may end up having minimal impact on their relations with China. We've taken out Khameini, and we don't know who will be in charge of Iran going forward - and it may very well be someone who is just as eager to have positive relations with China as Khameini.
But the world is complex place and the sophomoric assumptions this board runs on aren't cutting it. The links between China and various bad actors around the globe are being cut one by one.
I think you're making some sophomoric assumptions about what's happening between China and various bad actors around the globe. These links aren't being cut, because they aren't personal to the individual holding the head of state position. China had a strong position in Venezuela because that country was a far-left socialist government that used conflict with the United States to project legitimacy to its supporters. Now that Maduro is gone, it remains a far-left socialist government that will use conflict with the United States to project legitimacy to its supporters. We don't know what's going to happen with Iran, but as always the most likely outcome is that the existing regime or some faction of the existing regime will be running it once the dust has settled. And all of the same factors that led the prior Iranian government to forge strong ties with China will still be in place.
