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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: rayvt ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/08/26 5:57 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 14
SMA timing flipped today

I use the 43 week (10 month) SMA of the S&P 500, gated by 2 FRED indexes.
In the last month the low SMA was -4.1%. It went negative on March 20, 2026.
But the FRED indexes have been both positive, thus blocking the SMA sell signal.

Today the SMA flipped positive. -0.3% yesterday to +2.2% today.
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Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 12:21 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
Same on all the major asset classes (EFA, Emerging, etc) except US small caps which never dropped all the way to their 43/50 weekly MAs so no cross/flip.
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Author: mapg ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 8:48 AM
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BUT markets are volatile NOW (SEE WTI price) and could reverse QUICKLY.

           WTI       RBOB
           LS CRUDE  GASOLINE  GOLD     SILVER    E-MINI DOW  E-MINI NASD100  E-MINI SP500
4/8/2026      99.20      2.97  4768.71   74.52    47.967.00         25033.25       6806.25
% CHG          5.05      1.61    -0.23   -1.17         -0.37           -0.16         -0.26
AS OF EDT      8:20      8:20     8:20    8:20          8:20            8:20          8:20


gd_



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Author: rayvt ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 9:30 AM
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BUT markets are volatile NOW (SEE WTI price) and could reverse QUICKLY.

Yes. What the recent price action says to me is that it is almost completely driven by fleeting short-term emotion.
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Author: mapg ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 5:11 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Good call for today hope for more of the same tomorrow.

       .DJI      .SPX     .IXIC     .TNX   BTC/USD
PRICE  48185.80  6824.66  22822.42  42.93  72420.35
% CHG      0.58     0.62      0.83   0.05      2.01


GD_
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Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 5386 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/11/26 7:49 AM
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SMA timing flipped today
I use the 43 week (10 month) SMA of the S&P 500, gated by 2 FRED indexes.

Same for the one I watch.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SPX&p=d&yr=1&...
Blue above red bullish.

The weird figures just mean a six month moving average, lagged two months. The middle of that interval is 5 months ago, so it's fairly similar to a 10 month moving average without lag, which in turn is close to the traditional 200 day MA. It was the winner of a "crossover backtest" competition I simulated long ago.

I find this crossover tends to get large long moves right giving long stretches without a signal, interspersed with quick whipsaws which, because they are generally quick, tend to be relatively low pain.


Weekly-check approximation of the same thing. Fewer signals.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SPX&p=w&yr=1&...

Jim
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