*                         10/21    10/28    11/4     11/11/24
S&P 500 Index             5864.67  5808.12  5728.80  5995.54
Trailing 12 month PE      28.72    28.33    27.99    29.08
Trail Earnings yield      3.48%    3.53%    3.57%    3.44%
Forward 12 month PE       23.66    23.36    22.96    24.42
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.23%    4.28%    4.35%    4.10%
90 day tbill yield        4.73     4.73     4.61     4.63
10 year tbond yield       4.08%    4.25%    4.37%    4.30%
Arezi Ratio               1.36     1.34     1.29     1.35
Fed Ratio                 0.97     0.99     1.00     1.05

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 53%
stocks, 47% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 33%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 80%.

Elan

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