No. of Recommendations: 2
Manlobbi- is it possible to take all the accumulated writings, transcripts, letters, etc of Charlie and Warren and make them accessible through an LLM?
No. of Recommendations: 7
I'm not Manlobbi, but do you mean training an LLM on those materials or something else? Have you tried asking OpenAI? Everything you mentioned are publicly available materials.
I prompted
https://chatgpt.com/ with
'Please imagine what Charlie Munger would say about the closure of USAID as it pertains to US prosperity in a tone like "Good Charlies Almanack"'The response was,
'“Well, I’ll tell you what—closing down USAID, that’s about as smart as locking the barn door after the horses have escaped. If you want the US to continue its path of prosperity, it's not just about protecting your borders or hoarding your wealth; it’s about fostering global stability. USAID may not be a sexy topic at dinner parties, but it sure is important.
Now, let me get this straight: Here we have an agency that helps to build infrastructure, promotes health, and combats poverty in parts of the world where chaos is a daily feature. If we shut that down, we're asking for problems down the road. It’s not just good for the world; it’s good for us. We benefit from it through increased trade, stronger diplomatic ties, and less risk of global unrest. Prosperity doesn’t just grow by keeping your own house in order—it grows by helping to make sure the entire neighborhood doesn’t burn down.
I can hear the arguments: 'Oh, it’s a waste of money!' Baloney. Some of the best investments you can make are the ones that build goodwill, stabilize regions, and prevent conflicts before they explode into wars. The cost of inaction is far greater than the price of a well-placed aid program. You don’t just pour money into foreign lands for the heck of it. You do it because it creates an environment where everyone prospers—yes, even you, sitting on your fat pile of dollars.
So if you want to know my thoughts: Closing USAID is a shortsighted, self-centered move that undermines long-term US prosperity. It's like betting against the house on a game you don't understand. If I had my way, I’d keep the agency running, sharpen its focus, and, hell, make sure it’s doing even more to advance the values and interests of the United States in a global context.
But then again, what do I know? I'm just a guy who's lived a long life of reading, thinking, and keeping my investments diversified. But remember this: Smart decisions are the ones that pay dividends for decades—not just in the next quarter.”'So a freely available LLM is already trained on this.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I was thinking more for asking their viewpoints on well trodden topics, not hypotheticals or extensions to current events issues. That's more hallucination prone.
I'm not sure that the corpus of Buffett/Munger text has been uploaded. Can you ask GPT o1 specific questions about Poor Charlie's Almanac or the BRK annual letters?
No. of Recommendations: 0
I'd play with it if I were you! You can anonymously visit chatgpt.com which is my go-to, but others have good luck with Claude, Perpexity, Gemini, among others.
For example, I did exactly that and prompted, "What is the tone and greatest concern in the Berkshire Hathaway annual letter in 1983?"
ChatGPT's response was:
"In Warren Buffett's 1983 Berkshire Hathaway annual letter, the tone is generally optimistic, but it also maintains Buffett's characteristic pragmatism and cautiousness. He focuses on long-term value creation, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong financial position and investing in businesses with durable competitive advantages. The letter has a somewhat educational tone, as Buffett takes the opportunity to explain his investment philosophy to shareholders.
The greatest concern expressed in the 1983 letter revolves around **inflation and the impact it can have on capital allocation**. Buffett warns about the danger of inflation eroding the purchasing power of cash and suggests that it is critical for companies to find ways to earn a return on capital that exceeds the rate of inflation. He highlights the importance of prudent capital management and stresses the need for avoiding investments that might look good in the short-term but are not viable over the long run.
Buffett's concern about inflation underscores his emphasis on the preservation of capital, and his view that, in times of inflation, it is essential to be invested in businesses with strong fundamentals and the ability to raise prices. The tone is optimistic, but also acknowledges the realities and challenges of the economic environment."
Since that could describe almost any annual letter, I asked a follow up on specifics, "Specifically, did he touch on changes to the portfolio in that year?"
To which ChatGPT responded
"Yes, in his 1983 letter, Warren Buffett specifically touched on changes to the portfolio that year. One of the key changes was **the acquisition of several businesses**, as well as the **sale of some investments**.
Buffett pointed to Berkshire Hathaway's evolving strategy of **acquiring entire companies** rather than just stocks. He emphasized the growing importance of this strategy in Berkshire's long-term success, noting that owning entire businesses provided more control and a better chance to create value over time compared to just owning shares in publicly traded companies.
Among the major acquisitions in 1983 was **Scott Fetzer**, a diversified industrial company, which Buffett considered an important addition. He also discussed the **purchase of a large stake in the Washington Post**, which he believed was an excellent long-term investment, given the company's strong market position in the media industry.
At the same time, Buffett highlighted **sales of certain stocks** where the returns did not meet his expectations or where the opportunities for capital appreciation had become limited. For example, he noted that Berkshire had sold its investment in **American Express** (a position that had been reduced over time due to concerns about its competitive position and future growth potential).
Overall, the changes to the portfolio in 1983 reflected Buffett's focus on companies with strong earnings power and the ability to maintain competitive advantages over the long term. The portfolio shift also demonstrated his growing preference for **acquiring entire businesses** rather than just holding stocks, which would become a hallmark of Berkshire's strategy in the years that followed."
So it has been trained on that material, and based on my earlier post, on Poor Charlie's, too, based on the ability to reproduce the tone. You'd probably benefit from the more sophisticated model around the trained material, and even if you don't want it, the ability to extrapolate from the extracted features onto other domains.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Of course, I checked my work after sending. Underscoring my point earlier about the risks of AGI and potential collapse of the bubble, a quick review shows that is largely hallucinated
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1983.htm.... Maybe someone
should try to train an LLM specifically for this.
LLMs are interesting things.
No. of Recommendations: 9
An AI Charlie-Bot already exists, and it's pretty funny!
I asked him, Is there anything better than compound interest?
Charlie Bot replied, "Better than compound interest? Only the delusions of the ignorant.
Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world—understand it and earn it,
or pay it and weep. Now go harness it in your investments or ignore this and join the legion of financial nitwits."
https://beta.pickaxeproject.com/axe?id=Charlie_Mun...
No. of Recommendations: 3
I was using GPT Deep Research and got similar results but then kept prompting it to focus more. It did okay but after significant prompting.
Also tried DeepSeek R1 and it got an okay answer but didn't actually read the 1981 letter but a website that summarized it.
******************
Several of Berkshire Hathaway's annual letters discuss inflation, but one of the most notable and detailed discussions can be found in Warren Buffett's 1981 shareholder letter. In this letter, Buffett provides a thorough analysis of inflation's impact on businesses and investments, using vivid metaphors and clear explanations to illustrate his points. Here are the key highlights from the letter regarding inflation:
Key Points on Inflation from the 1981 Letter:
Inflation as a "Corporate Tapeworm":
Buffett describes inflation as a "gigantic corporate tapeworm" that preemptively consumes investment dollars, regardless of the health of the business. This metaphor emphasizes how inflation forces businesses to reinvest just to maintain their current operations, leaving little room for growth or dividends1014.
Impact on Low-Return Businesses:
Low-return businesses are particularly vulnerable to inflation. They must retain most of their earnings to keep up with rising costs, which leaves shareholders with little to no real returns. Buffett compares this to reinvesting in low-yield bonds, which is economically irrational1014.
Inflation and Retained Earnings:
Buffett argues that companies with low returns on equity should pay out dividends rather than retain earnings, as reinvesting in low-return businesses during inflationary periods destroys shareholder value. This contrasts with high-return businesses, which should retain earnings to compound growth1014.
Historical Context:
At the time of the letter, inflation in the U.S. was beginning to subside due to Federal Reserve policies under Paul Volcker. However, Buffett remained pessimistic about long-term inflationary trends, stating that a stable price level is easier to maintain than to restore once lost1014.
Investment Strategy in Inflationary Environments:
Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing in businesses that can outpace inflation through high returns on equity. He criticizes the common corporate practice of prioritizing size and growth over profitability, which is particularly detrimental during inflationary periods1014.
Other Letters Mentioning Inflation:
2022 Letter: Buffett briefly touches on inflation, noting that Berkshire's insurance business is well-positioned to handle rising prices due to its ability to adjust premiums and invest its float12.
1980 Letter: This letter also includes a discussion on inflation, focusing on its impact on corporate earnings and the importance of investing in businesses with durable competitive advantages14.
Why the 1981 Letter Stands Out:
The 1981 letter is particularly insightful because it combines Buffett's characteristic wit with a deep analysis of inflation's economic mechanics. His use of metaphors like the "corporate tapeworm" and references to historical events (e.g., Paul Volcker's policies) make the discussion both engaging and educational.
For a detailed read, you can access the full text of the 1981 letter here10.
