*                         11/20    11/27    12/4     12/11/23
S&P 500 Index             4514.02  4559.34  4594.63  4604.37
Trailing 12 month PE      23.74    23.92    24.08    24.02
Trail Earnings yield      4.21%    4.18%    4.15%    4.16%
Forward 12 month PE       20.88    21.04    21.07    21.07
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.79%    4.75%    4.75%    4.75%
90 day tbill yield        5.50     5.54     5.43     5.44
10 year tbond yield       4.44%    4.47%    4.22%    4.23%
Arezi Ratio               1.31     1.32     1.31     1.31
Fed Ratio                 0.93     0.94     0.89     0.89

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 55%
stocks, 45% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 35%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 81%.

Elan

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.