No. of Recommendations: 9
I would be extremely surprised at a dividend any time soon.
I would also be quite surprised. For a few reasons:
1. There are MANY very long-term holders that specifically do not want that part of their portfolio to generate any current income.
2. Included in 1 above, there are many who intend to donate (a la Gottesmann) their entire holding upon death. And they don't want it continually diluted by dividends and associated taxes each year until then.
3. There are precious few investments out there that can produce only capital gains (when the holder chooses to do so) and no unexpected (or expected) current taxable income. Many people who seek that characteristic specifically choose Berkshire for it.
4. It won't solve the cash "problem". Even if a dividend of say 3% were distributed each year, that would only amount to about $30B. Annual operating cash flow is close to that. So maybe $330B cash would drop to $325B cash after a year, to $320B after 2 years, etc.
5. A special one time dividend would wreak havoc for many people. I don't see that happening.
Nothing wrong with "merely good" acquisitions, which is what I expect.
I suspect that WEB looks at it like this - as long as T-bills yield is higher than earnings yield on the S&P500, may as well stick with T-bills for un-deployed cash. When interest rates start going down (probably during next recession), then there are a few choices:
1. Find interesting and fairly valued companies and buy them. Maybe Chubb. Maybe Occidental. Etc.
2. Or buy shares in "merely good" companies. Perhaps add to current positions a bit, and perhaps add some others.
3. Buy the S&P500 as the interim holding (instead of T-bills) and sell [part of] it if something really good, and big, comes along.
