Please be respectful of others' privacy, and avoid sharing personal information or sensitive content without their permission. If you are unsure if something is appropriate to share, ask for permission (use the 'Privately email' option when replying to their post) or avoid sharing it altogether.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 21
Back on the old MF board, on 11/9/20, rnam started a thread titled: Time to Switch
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?thread=3... rnam (post 257107)
Today is a great day for those who have complained about BRK's stretch of underperformance compared to AMZN and TSLA. You can sell your BRK shares and swap them for AMZN and TSLA.
AS I write:
BRK up 7.5%
Amazon down 2.4%
Tesla up only 1.0%
Check back after a few years and let us know how it works out.Mungofitch put a price stake in the ground (post 257110)
Good one!
For the record, as I type
BRK/B $224.45
Tesla $430.68
Amazon $3211.14
US dollar index 92.22
CPI 260.28
Let's check back in a decade.
I expect Amazon and Tesla will still have valuation multiples much like today: exuberant based on the business results, making sense only if the distant future remains much more profitable.
Jam tomorrow, not today.
Meaning they might well do better than Berkshire shares in price terms.The three-year update as I type
TSLA 50.5%
AMZN -9.3%
BRK/B 57.5%
Tails
No. of Recommendations: 10
This would be a good time to start a bet with the board. My portfolio against BRK. David against Goliath.
Call it Bitcoin (GBTC), Brookfield (BAM) and Tesla (TSLA) against BRK/A.
All of them could be argued are in the mid-range of recent valuations. (In the past, this board has been good at pointing out when BTC and TSLA are in the midst of excessive exuberance. Good calls.) Right now, I would say with both GBTC and TSLA at roughly twice their recent lows and half their all-time highs that's no longer the case. BAM and BRK are off their highs too.
TSLA: 215
GBTC: 30
BAM: 31
BRK: 530,000
I don't do decimals.
I think these stocks are appropriate because I own them, but more importantly, they represent an anti-BRK portfolio. (I am far from being anti-BRK.) Also, BTC and AI(TSLA) have been recently criticized by Munger. And, BAM is a pure asset manager - similar to BRK's model in many ways ... it's a competitor.
I don't want to start a new conversation about these investments. It IS the BRK board and GBTC and TSLA do not fit into what has been a very good investing methodology for the last century. Value investing clearly works. But, this board needs the occassional antagonist to keep your creaky old bones moving and a little stimulation to try and preserve what little neuroplasticity you have left.:)
No. of Recommendations: 5
This would be a good time to start a bet with the board. My portfolio against BRK. David against Goliath.
Call it Bitcoin (GBTC), Brookfield (BAM) and Tesla (TSLA) against BRK/A.
I think the reason to have a BRK heavy portfolio is not because you believe it will have the highest future expected value.
I'm more concerned with the 5th percentile -- in other words, how do I maximize the worst case scenario.
You might say I should just hold cash in that case. But what is the worst 10 year stretch BRK has ever had? (I don't know the answer, but I suspect it would be pretty good).
No. of Recommendations: 4
“I'm more concerned with the 5th percentile -- in other words, how do I maximize the worst case scenario.”
Amen! Important to sleep well, esp. as the grey hairs multiply. Owning BRK and never selling a share (so far) has been fun, fruitful & has Also saved me from myself.
"The investor's chief problem-- even his worst enemy-- is likely to be himself."—Graham
No. of Recommendations: 10
Amen! Important to sleep well, esp. as the grey hairs multiply. Owning BRK and never selling a share (so far) has been fun, fruitful & has Also saved me from myself.Well, I own a boatload of shares in BRK, acquired on dips over time, ever since 1998 or so, and I too have never sold a single share — and I’m extremely pleased with the results after 25 years. I’m now 80% or more, all in with BRK, with the rest in cash. Am thinking of moving some of that cash from treasuries to a short term bond fund to stretch out duration a bit and then redeploy later when the ?!@$ hits the fan. Admittedly, I have a very basic portfolio, bordering on sloth and inactivity, void of options and other sophisticated trading strategies, with an asset allocation that might resemble Boglehead simplicity. So be it…
I have huge embedded long term cap gain taxes in the taxable portion of my BRK. Every time I get tempted in recent months to sell off a percentage of my BRK in tax deferred accounts which will not trigger any immediate tax event, I begin to vacillate. I could easily bring it back down to 60-65% of my net worth without any immediate tax effects, but I hesitate. I just go back and read the following and my buy, add, set, and forget it kicks in big time again. Thank you Charlie for instilling in me the discipline I truly need to avoid temptation.
Charlie Munger: Well, at Berkshire we have a simple problem of estate planning. Just hold the g--damn stock. [laughter]
Warren Buffett: Well, but that doesn’t fit everybody, Charlie. I mean, you know … .
Charlie Munger: No, it only fits 95%. [laughter]
https://fwtx.com/news/fort-worth-attorney-becoming...
No. of Recommendations: 2
You might say I should just hold cash in that case. But what is the worst 10 year stretch BRK has ever had? (I don't know the answer, but I suspect it would be pretty good).
Using data from Yahoo and looking at the last 30 years, BRK-A had zero total 10 year return starting early March 1999 and ending March 2009.
Top 10 year CAGR was 20% ending April 2004.
Craig
No. of Recommendations: 10
I’m now 80% or more, all in with BRK, with the rest in cash. [...] Admittedly, I have a very basic portfolio, bordering on sloth and inactivity, void of options and other sophisticated trading strategies, with an asset allocation that might resemble Boglehead simplicity.
I was reading a thread about Berkshire on the Boglehead forum. It's amusing how much they shun Berkshire. "Uhh, single stock risk?! No way. That's so dumb."
There was a poster saying they'd consider a 5% Berkshire allocation with play money. Maybe even 7%, because it was Berkshire. That got a chuckle out of me. That Berkshire gets a whole extra 2%.
No. of Recommendations: 13
The Boogleheads would have a stroke if they knew how some of us long time holders are concentrated in this single stock
No. of Recommendations: 6
There was a poster saying they'd consider a 5% Berkshire allocation with play money. Maybe even 7%, because it was Berkshire. That got a chuckle out of me. That Berkshire gets a whole extra 2%.
From Morgan Housel, "The Psychology of Money":
(Thanks for that book tip from somebody here!)
Charlie, Warren, and Rick were equally skilled at getting wealthy. But Warren and Charlie had the added skill of staying wealthy. Which, over time, is the skill that matters most.
Nassim Taleb put it this way: “Having an ‘edge’ and surviving are two different things: the first requires the second. You need to avoid ruin. At all costs.”
Applying the survival mindset to the real world comes down to appreciating three things.
1. More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable. And if I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.
I don't think putting all your nest eggs into Berkshire fits that "survival mindset". You might think Berkshire is "unbreakable", but:
A plan is only useful if it can survive reality. And a future filled with unknowns is everyone’s reality. A good plan doesn’t pretend this weren’t true; it embraces it and emphasizes room for error.
Putting the majority of one's savings in Berkshire does not leave room for error, does not acknowledge that the future is unknown.
(Disclaimer: I am one of the worst sinners.)
No. of Recommendations: 3
"There was a poster saying they'd consider a 5% Berkshire allocation with play money. Maybe even 7%, because it was
Berkshire. That got a chuckle out of me. That Berkshire gets a whole extra 2%." - carolsharp
Hi carolsharp,
Thanks for bringing a bit of levity to the board. Personally, I didn't even get to the "whole extra 2%".
My reading was stopped the prior sentence "with play money".
All the best !
CmoreBmore
No. of Recommendations: 3
Jet, thanks for a great post and great link. Aside from all the money it makes, the positive energy generated by BRK is pretty amazing, and IMO part of its moat. That's probably why the ProPublica report is of such concern. The implications of the report are reputational, not financial, but it will be harmful to BRK if true.
BTW, the TTI web site has a compete list of all BRK operating companies, which I had not seen in a long time. Some I had forgotten (Johns Manville) and others I never knew about (ACME Brick, Medpro Group, even TTI itself.)
https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/about/compan...abromber
No. of Recommendations: 1
BTW, the TTI web site has a compete list of all BRK operating companies, which I had not seen in a long time. Some I had forgotten (Johns Manville) and others I never knew about (ACME Brick, Medpro Group, even TTI itself.)
https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/about/compan...
Thanks for the glorious link, it has a lot of info.
Turns out Mouser Electronics is part of TTI, so when I buy components from them, I'm buying from Berkshire.
Cool!
No. of Recommendations: 5
This would be a good time to start a bet with the board. My portfolio against BRK. David against Goliath.
Call it Bitcoin (GBTC), Brookfield (BAM) and Tesla (TSLA) against BRK/A.
All of them could be argued are in the mid-range of recent valuations. (In the past, this board has been good at pointing out when BTC and TSLA are in the midst of excessive exuberance. Good calls.) Right now, I would say with both GBTC and TSLA at roughly twice their recent lows and half their all-time highs that's no longer the case. BAM and BRK are off their highs too.
TSLA: 215
GBTC: 30
BAM: 31
BRK: 530,000
I don't do decimals.
I think these stocks are appropriate because I own them, but more importantly, they represent an anti-BRK portfolio. (I am far from being anti-BRK.) Also, BTC and AI(TSLA) have been recently criticized by Munger. And, BAM is a pure asset manager - similar to BRK's model in many ways ... it's a competitor.
I don't want to start a new conversation about these investments. It IS the BRK board and GBTC and TSLA do not fit into what has been a very good investing methodology for the last century. Value investing clearly works. But, this board needs the occassional antagonist to keep your creaky old bones moving and a little stimulation to try and preserve what little neuroplasticity you have left.:)
It's a few days ahead of the end of a year. But, it's a Sunday and I want to include the election in next years results. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations it was a good year for both of us:
TSLA: 215-250 =16%
GBTC + BTC (spin): 30-61 =103%
BAM: 31-53 =70%
----------------------
Total 63%
BRK: 530-680 =28%
----------------
Total 28%
This is very close to my actual portfolio and within a few percent of my actual returns.
Very recently I've sold some BAM. Still love the company and like the restructuring they're undertaking but the price has gotten a little rich.
Tesla has gotten much cheaper in the last year. Progress in data centers/autonomy/AI, semi-truck, energy storage, 4680 cell production, Cybertruck ramp and humanoid robot all have me excited for the future. The pace of innovation, their competitive advantage, has not slowed.
GBTC doubled but so did the value. I judge BTC in terms of adoption and regulatory certainty. The ETFs are bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars from new investors every day. MSTR (along with others) are converting USD into BTC for those who can only invest in stocks and bonds. People all over the world are saving in BTC. If it truly does go mainstream, it's probably anywhere from a 10-100X. Conceivably, a 10X in the next few years. A lot depends on the upcoming election in terms of regulatory certainty. Either way, it seems that nobody wants to alienate the Bitcoin voter ... maybe one in four own crypto. Also, I've never seen a reliable estimate on what percentage of all BTC are held by Americans.
Berkshire is looking tired. WEB isn't getting calls anymore from people wanting to sell him good businesses at great prices. The recent discussion of Geico was I thought instructive of the bigger problem: they're falling behind in tech. You can't stay competitive just by running a lean ship anymore. You need to innovate or you'll get passed by. Trying to catch up isn't where you want your businesses to be.
I've trimmed my BAM and bought more TSLA recently but for simplicity I'll run the same companies again for the next year. I still own BAM but it's a taxable account and I'm locked in. Also, even at an elevated price it presents less risk than my other choices.
Next year:
TSLA: 250
GBTC + BTC: 61
BAM: 53
BRK: 680,000.
Good luck!
No. of Recommendations: 0
"and bought more TSLA recently but for simplicity"
IF Harris wins, it might be a tuff 4 years for Musk, good luck.
