No. of Recommendations: 5
All very good points about the current economy. But if you want to understand why US voters are unhappy about the economy, you just need to look at three charts: inflation, mortgage rates, and gas prices.
time frames
ECI dropped April 2021 to June 2022
inflation rose April 2021 to June 2022
mortgage rates rose May 2022 to November 2023
gas prices rose February 2022 to June 2022
The recent drop in the Gallup Economic Confidence Index (ECI) lines up with inflation. Inflation moved above 3% in April 2021, and peaked in June 2022. ECI dropped over that time period.
Mortgage rates moved above 5% in May 2022, and peaked November 2023.
Real gas prices have been moderate since 2015. Gas prices had a temporary surge starting in February 2022 (Ukraine) with a peak June 2022. It took a few months for domestic supply to reactivate.
The 4 big drops in ECI happened around the time of Bear Markets.
drops in ECI:
January 2000 to February 2001: from 56 to -8
January 2007 to October 2008: from 11 to -72
February 2020 to April 2020: 41 to -32
April 2021 to June 2022: 2 to -58
Bear markets:
March 2000 to October 2002: 49% loss
October 2007 to March 2009: 57% loss
February 2020 to March 2020: 34% loss
January 2022 to October 2022: 25% loss
Difference in months (Bear-ECI):
2 to 20
9 to 5
0 to -1
9 to 4
Recoveries from these drops in ECI was roughly V-shaped for about 50% recovery and then mixed after that:
April 2002 to January 2007: from 22 to 11
April 2010 to February 2020: from -13 to 41
November 2020 to April 2021: -1 to 2
August 2023 to ???: -30 to ??
So it could take 6 years for ECI to go positive, and anything that causes a Bear market will move ECI lower. Or maybe we will see something new, when inflation is declared past.
==== References ====
Gallup poll 2023 November 1-21:
How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair or poor?
Excellent 2%, Good 17%, Only fair 31%, Poor 50%
Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?
Getting better 23%, Getting worse 72%, Same 5%
Gallup Economic Confidence Index = ((2+17-50)+(23-72))/2 = -40
The combined responses are used to create the Gallup Economic Confidence Index (ECI), which has a theoretical range of +100 (if all respondents say the economy is excellent or good and that it is getting better) to -100 (if all say it is poor and getting worse).
see chart for Gallup Economic Confidence Index, 1996-2023 at:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-e...US Regular All Formulations Gas Price/Consumer Price Index
Real gas prices were flat from 1991 to 2004, doubled from 2004 to 2009, remained high from 2009 to 2015, and have been moderate from 2015 to 2023.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p93wS&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1928
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pd...
