*                         3/4      3/11     3/18     3/25/24
S&P 500 Index             5137.08  5123.69  5117.09  5235.15
Trailing 12 month PE      26.56    26.46    26.49    27.10
Trail Earnings yield      3.77%    3.78%    3.78%    3.69%
Forward 12 month PE       23.18    22.89    22.68    23.20
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.31%    4.37%    4.41%    4.31%
90 day tbill yield        5.42     5.46     5.48     5.46
10 year tbond yield       4.19%    4.09%    4.31%    4.22%
Arezi Ratio               1.44     1.44     1.45     1.48
Fed Ratio                 0.97     0.94     0.98     0.98

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 46%
stocks, 54% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 26%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 76%.

Elan

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.