No. of Recommendations: 1
Industry analyst Jason Bordoff was on Amanpour tonight. He put some numbers on what we have been suspecting: at the start of this year, the industry was looking at 2-3Mbpd of excess production. The war has now solved that problem.
That invites the question, why haven't the markets gone absolutely ape? As we discussed here, he attributed the market's casual response to Trump's repeated assurances that the war is almost over, everything will be back to normal in a few weeks, ie, he is using the same playbook he used with Covid.
Bordoff's timeline for it to get real, for the US, is another two to three months.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
On NPR podcasts I'm getting repeated ads from the American Petroleum Institute. They're loving this. Good times!
No. of Recommendations: 2
for any buying into the trump fossil grand strategy nonsense, i invite specific predictions on :
- will trump exercise his unilateral unrefined american export ban? if so, at what price.
- will trump attempt to expand to refined product ban ?
i say no, as long as there is no clear benefit to friends and family.
although i know not how much he's made via fossil since his iran war, there is always a chance to extort more from big oil windfall.
No. of Recommendations: 1
- will trump exercise his unilateral unrefined american export ban? if so, at what price.
- will trump attempt to expand to refined product ban ?From last March:
Trump officials rule out oil export ban in meeting with industry execshttps://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/19/white-hou...This entire program is about increasing demand for USian oil and gas. Trump the Conqueror brags about foreign tankers on their way to the US to bid against USians for products.
i say no, as long as there is no clear benefit to friends and family.Seems there is trading on inside information, on both sides. These look like Iranian trades.
APRIL 17, 2026
A massive oil trade placed moments before crude prices slumped has triggered fresh questions over whether sensitive information tied to the Iran conflict may have been used to profit in global energy markets.
The transaction, worth around US$760 million, was executed roughly 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister formally announced on Friday that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for the rest of the ceasefire period.https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trading-in...22 hours ago
Mysterious trader buys $56 million in oil ahead of UAE attack
Another well-timed oil trade is adding to a growing pattern that has traders on edge during the war.https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/mysteriou...We take it as a given Trump the Most Brilliant and Perfect is front running his own pronouncements, that alternate between "peace is at hand" and "bomb them into the stone age".
Steve
