No. of Recommendations: 0
So, in November and December, inflation statistics for the USA came in lower than expected, prompting and then pushing upwards a fairly big market rally - which has continued until the current week.
But these rally-prompting figures were *wrong* and the data was updated yesterday.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/10/economy/cpi-rev...November: 0.1% original vs. 0.2% revised.
December: -0.1% original vs. 0.1% revised.
"The newly calibrated Consumer Price Index shows that prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from November versus a previously estimated decline of 0.1%. "
"Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy, saw upward revisions of 0.1 percentage points in December and November to 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. "
Can you imagine November and December market moves would have happened as they did with *this* data being announced?
Conveniently for the government and central bank, this meant that end of year wage/price negotiations used a lower rate of assumed inflation.
Conveniently for the government and central bank, +0.3% added into the recent past, means that +0.3% is not going to be present in current inflation figures going forward.
It is also interesting that at a time of high and volatile inflation, the methodology used to calculate the number is being modified on the fly.
"the January CPI report, ... will debut some modifications of its own: changing its weighting methodology from consumption patterns collected every two years to a single year of spending data. "
lux
