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I'm certainly hoping that either VL fixes its data next week, or else that Elan and zeelotes can figure out a work-around.

But what if neither happens? Those of us who invest in VL screens (I've been happily using SPARK and PEG for over a quarter-century now!) will need to do something else.

I've always known that someday I'd get out of VL screens. Either the wonderful volunteers here would move on to other things, or else I'd want to simplify my investment process as I age and/or as I hand things off to my wife. My plan has been that I'd move the MI portion of my portfolio over to the index fund portion.

But for now I was still hoping to benefit from some more years of MI outperformance.

For those of you who use VL-based screens, if these go away now, how do you plan to redirect those investments?

-- Dave

Hi Dave, I've been a longtime lurker of the mechanical investing boards, motleyfool to what i now prefer, shrewd'm. Long story short, I have learned so much from the wisdom of contributors to this forum. I have been outpacing the sp500 for the past 1.5 years using versions of ROE-cash screens in the SIPRO data universe. It has been worth the subscription to SIPRO, I use radiscreen xcel files to run my screens. I've never used valueline but have monitored VL screen picks over the years as presented by longtime contributors to this forum, thank you.
-tim

Although I only look at some of the Vl screens for individual picks, what has benefited me the most are the SOS screens that I use almost exclusively for individual picks and have been able to beat SP500 ETF's handily most all years. For me I surely have benefit from the SOS screens supplied by Elan or one of his occasional helpers.

Bottom line is I don't use the screens as originally intended for mechanical investing, picking x number for y time, rinse/repeat, but rather for occasional individual investments picks. To answer your question as to what would I do if the Elan's VL screening discontinued. Probably just put those $'s into my BEAT SP500 ETF's, SOXX, IYW, IWY, IVW, IGM, SMH, FBCG etc. while looking for other ways to find individual stocks like VRT, VST, CRS, APP, SFM, POWL, NVDA etc.

What's "strange" to me is how very few of the SOS picks show up on the other MI screening report from sipro data or whatever it is.

-- HardwaterRuss

But what if neither happens? Those of us who invest in VL screens (I've been happily using SPARK and PEG for over a quarter-century now!) will need to do something else.

As someone who started lurking here recently when I found your new location, I must say it gives me a smile to know that someone is still using and profiting from PEG after all these years.

Just for curiosity do you have returns that you've gotten over the years that you can share and if so what has been your holding period.

Moe

Nice to run into you again, Moe!

Just for curiosity do you have returns that you've gotten over the years that you can share and if so what has been your holding period.

1-year holds, divided over 4 portfolios that each start in a different quarter:

Year	PEG		S&P 500 (include div.)
1999	68.72%		21.04%
2000	33.19%		-9.10%
2001	5.84%		-11.89%
2002	-10.36%		-22.10%
2003	21.98%		28.68%
2004	3.88%		10.88%
2005	27.81%		4.91%
2006	19.07%		15.79%
2007	8.57%		5.49%
2008	-58.29%		-37.00%
2009	28.11%		26.46%
2010	24.77%		15.06%
2011	-17.49		2.11%
2012	23.55%		16.00%
2013	45.82%		32.39%
2014	15.13%		13.69%
2015	-11.65		-0.81%
2016	0.38%		9.62%
2017	15.50%		19.38%
2018	-24.34%		-6.35%
2019	31.24%		28.79%
2020	5.38%		16.11%
2021	39.80%		27.04%
2022	-4.18%		-19.48%
2023	25.20%		24.22%
2024	125.94		23.39%
	
Overall	12.36%		7.42%

-- Dave

Great to see you Moe. Along with Elan you were extremely helpful to MI beginners in the 1998-2000 period, on top of being involved with the research back then.

Shrewd on.

- Manlobbi

how very few of the SOS picks show up on the other MI screening report from sipro data or whatever it is.

VL picks (or used to pick, if anyone actually still works there) a defined universe first. Very few small caps are/were in it, which is the playground of SIPro. It's (or was) a mega-, large- and mid-cap focused universe.

FC

Overall 12.36% 7.42%

-- Dave

Thanks Dave. That is fantastic and nice to know it is a +5% over the last 25 years. Of course it's also a little sobering that it has been 25 years.

Great to see you Moe. Along with Elan you were extremely helpful to MI beginners in the 1998-2000 period, on top of being involved with the research back then.

Shrewd on.

- Manlobbi

Appreciate the kind words. I second your comments about Elan whose contributions to MI has been amazing and is well deserving of a Life Time Achievement Award for all he has done and continues to do.

Moe

VL picks (or used to pick, if anyone actually still works there) a defined universe first. Very few small caps are/were in it, which is the playground of SIPro. It's (or was) a mega-, large- and mid-cap focused universe.

That's not quite accurate. The VL 1700 stocks roughly overlap the S&P 500 large caps + S&P 400 midcaps + S&P 600 small caps. Everything outside that universe is mostly too small to trade individually.

Elan

Appreciate the kind words. I second your comments about Elan whose contributions to MI has been amazing and is well deserving of a Life Time Achievement Award for all he has done and continues to do.

Moe

Thank you Moe. It's good to see you here again after so many years. A true Blast from the Past.

Elan

P.S. Don't you live in the LA area? I hope you haven't suffered from the recent fires.

But what if neither happens? Those of us who invest in VL screens (I've been happily using SPARK and PEG for over a quarter-century now!) will need to do something else.

So far I've continued to use two VL screens - ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, because they don't use any price momentum data. But I have some concern about them too. Their turnover has been practically zero for months, unlike before, leading me to suspect that VL has not been updating many of the data fields for quite some time.

Elan

So other than Elan using ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, and me using PEG and Spark, is nobody here still regularly using the VL screens? Has Elan been calculating and posting weekly rankings all this time for just the two of us?

-- Dave

is nobody here still regularly using the VL screens?

I may be nobody, but I do use three of them: CashCowROE, ROIC, YLDEARNYEAR.

Eric Hines

I dropped my VL subscription sometime around 2005, looking at my records I have been using SIP and Portfolio123 since 2005. I did use 2 modified ROE_Cash screens using GTR1 and my own SIP screener a little over a year ago and did slightly better than SP500. Currently still experimenting with a small portion using AI/Machine Learning selection.
RAM or way on back FLARAM

I use the ROE_Cash, ROEPLOW & ROIC screens as a starting menu for my picks.

I'm using a couple of the short screens and PIH Safe.

So other than Elan using ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, and me using PEG and Spark, is nobody here still regularly using the VL screens? Has Elan been calculating and posting weekly rankings all this time for just the two of us?

Absolutely NOT!

I fully appreciate Elan's dedication to posting the screens every week.

-Brian

So other than Elan using ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, and me using PEG and Spark, is nobody here still regularly using the VL screens? Has Elan been calculating and posting weekly rankings all this time for just the two of us?

bdfinney replied:

Absolutely NOT!
I fully appreciate Elan's dedication to posting the screens every week.

That was bdfinney's first post at Shrewd'm and it is indicative of what I know behind the scenes in that there are many more readers than there are than publishers. I am grateful that bdfinney felt compelled to write his first post to express his gratitude to Elan.

Please do not assume that because people are not posting, there is not significant activity and value surrounding the posts here.

- Manlobbi

Has documentation been created detailing exactly how to create the screen postings? If so, I can possibly run the numbers and post the rankings each Monday after the VL data is released. I can quite easily fill in the missing total return data.

Not alone. (A grateful long time lurker from the Foolish days.)

Indeed...great to see "moebruin" as a poster name.

P.S. Don't you live in the LA area? I hope you haven't suffered from the recent fires.

Yes I live in the LA area but not in any of the hills or mountain areas that suffered from the fires so except for the poor air quality and a lot of smoke for a few days the fires didn't really affect me. I did grow up near one of the areas that was hit bad. I know a few people who live in those areas and for days didn't know whether their home was going to survive the fire but fortunately all those peoples homes survived.

Moe

So far I've continued to use two VL screens - ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, because they don't use any price momentum data. But I have some concern about them too. Their turnover has been practically zero for months, unlike before, leading me to suspect that VL has not been updating many of the data fields for quite some time.

I think it's likely because that screen (at least the original version and the version I run) uses the ROE field which is updated only annually. Very low turnover. I'm not sure how often the cash field changes, but it would mainly change just the final sort order a bit.

I did a full rebalance and set of trades Jan 13, but I hand calculated the few momentum figures I needed for other screens. A message to VL customer support elicited no response, of course.

Jim

So other than Elan using ROE_Cash and ROE_Cash-2, and me using PEG and Spark, is nobody here still regularly using the VL screens?

I'm running a bunch of VL screens. About 75 stocks total.
But I don't rely on rankings posted here.

Jim

There are about 4000 stocks of the 6000 in the SIPro universe that are:
price>$2
p x ave vol 10 days > $200,000
Mcap> 100 million

About 3300 if you increase that to
p>5
p x vol> $500,000
Mcap> 500 million

aka. Washu! ^O^ here. Been on the MI forums, mostly lurking, since the TMF days.

Anyway, looks like several of us use ROE_Cash. Can't find a link to the methodology anymore, but, iirc, part of the purpose of the screen is low turnover.
Perfect for us LTBH'ers (:

I've also been using the screens to pick stocks LTBH (accumulate), and selected a screen based on my familiarity the stock, including already owning it.

Lohill's been posting ROE_Cash screens with overlapping stocks:
ROE_Cash_boris GOOG GOOGL NVDA META TSLA PCAR ABNB ANET MOH WDAY EW COST
ROE_Cash_elann GOOG GOOGL TSM PDD NVDA META TSLA NTES PCAR ABNB ANET MOH WDAY EW COST

Elann's last ROE_Cash screens were posted in December, but, iirc, the stocks haven't change for months, if not over a year:
ROE_Cash GOOG META MSFT TSLA AMZN NVDA
ROE_Cash2 NVDA TJX NTAP LRCX ULTA NSP

And, for over a year, the ROE_Cash stocks have been performing very well. Not surprising, since they're all M7's. Of course, everything is fine until it isn't.
(I also do charting, btw, and NVDA and recent market behavior is not unexpected.)

fwiw, Here's how I've been accumulating for LTBH.
* Which stocks: MI. ROE_Cash. Plus stock screens for dividend stocks. (OZK for several months)
* How much to invest: Sentiment. CNN Fear and Greed Index.
* When to invest: Buy limits using gaps. (Twitter feed for the gapsters :D https://x.com/ced1106
* Avoid panic: Charting, including Volume Profiles for support / resistance.

I wrote: Has documentation been created detailing exactly how to create the screen postings? If so, I can possibly run the numbers and post the rankings each Monday after the VL data is released. I can quite easily fill in the missing total return data.

No one has stepped up to provide the tools and documentation for running the screen postings each week, but Elan has offered to use the data I provide to run the numbers. If/when he actually does that everyone needing the rankings should have them as they have in the past.

It takes my software about 35 seconds to run the #s, so it is not overly difficult for me to assist in this way.

The following is an attempt to determine the basis of the return values in Value Line Standard. I ran the numbers off of AAPL prices - dividend and split adjusted. In the software it claims prices are based on 2/7/2025 at 7:01 PM. As you'll see that is not exactly true.

1. Total Return 1-Week: Thursday CLOSE on 2/6/2025 and Thursday CLOSE on 1/30/2025 (-1.84%)
2. Total Return 4-Week: Thursday CLOSE on 2/6/2025 and Wednesday CLOSE on 1/8/2025 (-3.91%)
3. Total Return 13-Week: Rubbish!
4. Total Return 26-Week: Rubbish!
5. Total Return YTD: Rubbish

Returns for 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year (3,5,10 are CAGR returns), 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, etc. are all close enough.

Which returns are used in the screens posted each week? I can easily fix the file so that 13, 26, and YTD are corrected.

Which returns are used in the screens posted each week? I can easily fix the file so that 13, 26, and YTD are corrected.

From memory, I know for sure that some screens use 13 or 26 week return. There's probably a 4 week return somewhere. I doubt that anyone uses YTD return. Regardless, it's best to correct them all.

Elan

Elan wrote: From memory, I know for sure that some screens use 13 or 26 week return. There's probably a 4 week return somewhere. I doubt that anyone uses YTD return. Regardless, it's best to correct them all.

I've sent you the file with all the rubbish values corrected. As I wrote, the other columns are a-ok.

Anyone know of any data sources that provide out year estimates for stock prices? This is one of the last data points that VL provides that I use on a regular basis in my screens. in particular VLs 18month and 3 year out estimates.

Thanks in advance-
AllTooFoolish

google's AI says
like Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch, MSN Money, and the SEC website (for company filings), which all provide analyst consensus earnings estimates for the upcoming year, often with the ability to filter and compare across different companies.
Key points about these free sources:

Wide availability:
Most of these platforms are accessible without requiring an account, allowing you to quickly look up earnings estimates for various stocks.
Analyst consensus:
They display the average earnings estimate from multiple analysts, offering a general market sentiment on a company's future profitability.
Comparison capabilities:
You can easily compare earnings estimates across different companies on the same platform.

Other options with potentially more detailed information (may require account creation):

Morningstar:
Provides in-depth analysis including earnings estimates, with a free basic tier
Fidelity:
Offers a stock screener with access to earnings estimates, though some features may require an account
Finviz:
A visual stock screener that displays key metrics including earnings estimates

Important considerations:

Accuracy:
While free sources provide analyst consensus, not all analysts are equally accurate, and earnings estimates can change over time.

Data limitations:
Free versions might not offer as detailed information as paid subscription services.
Research is key:
Always conduct thorough research beyond just earnings estimates before making investment decisions.

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