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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: JohnIII ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Timing: recent highs
Date: 04/24/25 10:22 PM
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Given data has continued to fill in since then, do you think 99, 114, or some other number is best? I would guess that any number roughly in this range is within the error bars, but thought I'd ask.

I wrote some python code about 6 years back to explore questions like this. You can find it here:
github.com - Dying Bullish Euphoria

I've also got some spreadsheets you can download there.

There are actually two parameters: M (looking for a new M-day high)and N (in the last N days). This program found that SPY returns are maximized for M in the range M=138-142, and N=214. If the algorithm is restricted to M=N my recollection is that 114 was best, but just by a hair. But in 6 years the optimal parameter values could have changed. And of course they change significantly when considering a different index (e.g. IWM, NAS).

John
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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