Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search Macro
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search Macro


Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |
Post New
Author: jerryab   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Speculative short time?
Date: 02/02/26 7:48 PM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 0
If you have the profits, maybe dip a toe into speculative shorts? Hey, if you lose a bit, you already have the profit to offset any loss(es). However, if you profit....
Print the post


Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Speculative short time?
Date: 02/03/26 8:10 AM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 5
I think one might consider putting, say, 1.5% of one's portfolio into short positions, preferably with asymmetrical payoffs using options.

e.g., you could probably pick a little basket of things which give you (say) 2/3 chance of losing it all, and 1/3 chance of making 5 or 10 times your money. A one-time boost to your portfolio of 10% is nothing to sneeze at. You could ease into it over time.

The salient question is when to start opening those positions. Not yet, is my guess. It's extremely rare for the market to drop materially (and in a lasting way) within a short period after fresh recent highs. (and the most recent one was only 3 trading days ago). If there has been a recent high the speculative juices are still flowing, meaning most traders active in the market people are still very FOMO. Hesitant to give up, and quick to buy on a dip. I find that wears off after a while.

So...maybe the time to buy insurance is when it has been at least a little while since a fresh recent high.

Jim


Print the post


Post New
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends and Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds