No. of Recommendations: 2
> there is near universal agreement across politics and wealth class when inside a true crisis. (as opposed to peak bubble)
we are nowhere close, and a mild recession may not put us there either.
> make a plan for a true crisis and see if you can adhere?
I wasn't very clear - I'm not worried about missing the boat on an equity pullback or that we are in a crisis, I'm worry about the relative purchasing parity of my USD position. I had a plan, but I am concerned there was a flaw in it. I thought the USD (short term treasuries and money market) would be relatively stable, and that is what I'm having second thoughts about. I have the ability to execute forex and international trades, and I've been following a lot of the threads from long term posters on the topic, but I was hoping sanity would prevail in America. Again, second thoughts.
My crisis plan was just to have dry powder. I am approximately 50% managed - possibly soon to be self-managed - just trying to track indexes (with gratitude to rayvt, AdrianC, and sykesix in the index investing board), 45% cash equivalents, and 5% my personal trading portfolio (see the interesting microcaps boards, some tech, junior miners, etc). Other than that, the crisis dictates the plan to some extent.
It's not clear to me what this next crisis will be. 2000 and the dot com crash was a valuation crisis. 2008 was a liquidity crisis. The Krugman article resonated because that scenario has been what worries me; a systemic crisis at the same time as US/USD confidence crisis.
Why has America had such strong returns in the last 100 years. What combination of culture, legal system, international monetary role, economic policy, geographical luck, and accident of history is it? What could kill that golden goose? Because if the golden goose dies, maybe I look to forex and international markets and not wait for a pullback in US equities.
