No. of Recommendations: 1
True, but it does set all tariffs as a block. And all other trade policy - all of the terms under which "individual things" are imported and exported. And the EU VAT code, and the Common Agricultural Policy, and nearly all of the non-trade barriers that the U.S. would want to negotiate. All of that stuff is set by the European Commission, not individual countries. Almost everything important to trade negotiations is in the hands of the EU, not the individual countries.
There are individual components, as I've mentioned.
As an aside, the press over here views this as the Bad Orange Man is waging a tariff war against the rest of the world without ever addressing any of the other underlying issues - Europe's subsidies, China's intellectual theft, name it.
Nobody's attempted this kind of tariff and trade policy since the days of Hawley-Smoot.
True. But the democrats complained long and loud about the China tariffs that Trump imposed last time but then kept them in place when Biden was elected. While they probably wouldn't keep them at the same levels there are a few democrats that understand the long term play here and are willing to let Trump be the Ugly American that the rest of the world focuses on while quietly understanding the need to de-couple from China. So they'll loudly distance themselves from Trump but keep some of what he's put out there in place.
How can I say this? Because they've already done it.
Not fast enough to materially affect things in six months, though.
Likely not. Sadly, the public face of the democrat party, its supporters, and the media want Trump to fail and fail hard. The harder the better. They'd rather he cave completely, accomplish nothing, and see a stronger China out of all this just to have the short-term sugar high. The Chinese know it. The Europeans know it. So does everyone else. Playing to the democrats' penchant for leading the country over the cliff in the name of 'popularity' has been a weakness the rest of the world has exploited for a long, long time.
So, yes. You're probably right. Pity.
Not all of it, no
Not even a tenth of it. Why? They can't afford it.
What's hilarious about this debate is that nobody seems inclined to look at the ledgers on the other side and see what they're capable of. I had to laugh out loud at Canada today and what they think they're going to do with respect to cars and energy. The European version of that story is them talking tough about Russia while in reality writing Putin checks for energy and praying the US is willing to guarantee their security.
Black Friday is November 28th. Which means goods that are going to be distributed to U.S. stores for Black Friday have to be leaving Chinese ports about 30 days prior.
Try 2 months before.
But the EU (and other countries) definitely can absorb some of China's export markets, especially if they start getting a nice price on those goods.
Mmmm, not really. For one you assume that they're not getting 'a nice price' today. They're getting...the price today.
For two, the Europeans aren't going to suddenly expand their consumption of Chinese mops and toys and gym equipment just because the US isn't buying as much of it. Why would they? They've already established an economic equilibrium with respect to what they already import from China.
Is Europe going to all of a sudden buy more Chinese cars? (They buy zero today). How about Chinese jets? (Also zero). Chinese semiconductors? (Also zero).
The EU has as big an economy as the U.S. (bigger, in some respects), and can definitely take advantage of a bargain if Chinese goods start going on sale on global markets. Chinese exports to the U.S. are "only" about 15% of total Chinese exports. They won't be able to place all 15% with other countries, but they can certainly find a home for maybe four or five points worth.
Oh, by the by: What happens to European manufacturers - such as what remains - if their shores are suddenly flooded with Chinese goods at 'a nice price'? Do you think Ursula is going to absorb that just to spite Trump.
Nope. The reason is that the administration for all its faults has a point about worldwide protectionism and favoritism of their own products while simultaneously demanding free access to the American market.
I never read that point, ever, anywhere.
