Please be positive and upbeat in your interactions, and avoid making negative or pessimistic comments. Instead, focus on the potential opportunities.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 7
No doubt, Biden’s fault.
There were an estimated 242,000 jobless claims filed last week, according to seasonally adjusted data released Thursday by the Department of Labor. That’s an increase of 22,000 from the prior week’s tally and a figure that landed well above economists’ expectations for 220,000 claims.https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/27/economy/us-jobless-...
No. of Recommendations: 5
The market did not like this, and had a significant drop. Jobless claims coupled with the drop in consumer confidence does not bode well. Trump is threating to implement his tariffs on Canada and Mexico in early March. Everything is now pointing to a recession. We will see if they can avoid that catastrophe.
Alan
No. of Recommendations: 3
Trump said Americans would feel pain.
It may be the only honest thing he has said during his presidencies.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Everything is now pointing to a recession. We will see if they can avoid that catastrophe.
Do the oligarchs really want to avoid a recession? Because it's not a catastrophe for them.
If we do slip into recession, the Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates. But those rate cuts won't flow down to consumers. They never do. Credit card rates will remain at 25% or higher. Auto loans might get a break, but only from car makers subsidizing them. Home mortgages might go down a bit because that helps the wealthy.
But businesses are the big beneficiaries of interest rate cuts. And you can be sure that any savings from the rate cuts will flow to the C-Suite first, with any leftovers going to shareholders.
So I'm not all that sure the current administration cares if we slip into recession.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 4
And,
"The Federal Reserve's favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign.
The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that's known as an "inverted yield curve," and it's had a sterling prediction record.
While there's no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around, investors worry that expected growth from an ambitious agenda under President Donald Trump may not happen.
Yield curve inversions have had a strong but not perfect forecasting history."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/federal-reserves-f...?
No. of Recommendations: 2
So I'm not all that sure the current administration cares if we slip into recession.
I think Trump does want to continue with the adulation of his fans. My wife reports that during pickle ball some of the wives remark how much Trump has accomplished in 30 days. I'm apprehensive. He's managed to not have anything stick except the pandemic and to blame others for not accomplishing much his first term, etc. The cuts Congress is working on are 450 billion a year - that's sizeable. You're right, it won't hurt the oligarchs, but a lot of people are going to get hurt, I know some of them, but I think a lot of MAGA will continue to blame libs.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Thanks Banksy. The "inverted yield curve," arrives in time to grace Trump's term with its presence. Crossing my fingers.
No. of Recommendations: 2
If we do slip into recession, the Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates.
This is not clear. It is more likely it would look a bit like the "stagflation" of the "70's. Analysts are predicting that the combination of conservative fiscal policy, immigration reduction, and tariffs could easily lead to recession coupled with inflation.
There is still a lot of rope between the current situation and stagflation. I hope Trump listens to his economic advisors and avoids this scenario.
Alan
No. of Recommendations: 2
Who are Trump's economic advisors?
Does he listen to any advice?
