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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 555 
Subject: Market YTD / Shiller / Buffett Ratio
Date: 09/15/2023 11:11 AM
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https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd

This is a visual map of market gains in % terms this year.

It does not include the rally from October to December 2022.

However, it gives you an idea of which parts of the market have raced ahead the most in 2023.

Those parts IMHO may be more likely to race backwards in any correction or crash.

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The Shiller CAPE P/E, SP500 market price/sales, Buffett ratio, etc remain very elevated though not quite at record levels.

Shiller: 31x vs historical peak 45x and recent peak 40x

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

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SP500 Price/sales: 2.5x vs historical peak 3x

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

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Buffett Ratio: 177% GDP (1.5x standard deviations) vs 2.6x standard deviation peak.

Consider the 50 years from 1973 to 2023.

It is interesting to see that across 5 decades, the market spends very little time above 1 standard deviation upwards.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buff...


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