Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (65) |
Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 22351 
Subject: Re: OT: big companies
Date: 07/30/23 10:50 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 16
When I was just getting started with investing, I remember they had two portfolios. I think it was rule makers, and rule breakers. We had the 90s boom, and they very proudly showed how they were beating the market. Then we had the .com crash and they started trailing the market.
What did they do? They stopped publishing their results and claimed there was some problem with their data provider. This went on for a very long time.


Their slide in terms of performance and behaviour coincided with a big slide in their solvency.
Speaking from experience, having to make payroll will focus the mind tremendously, and sometimes trigger unfortunate decisions.

It is indeed sad that they have become the exact thing they mocked in the 1990s. Their emails are now astounding examples of the "shrill shill".
But I guess they have to make a living, and it is a fine demonstration how natural evolution in business models favours the most remunerative, not the most respectable.

Jim

As a totally unrelated aside, a bubble is a terrible thing to waste.
For those who miss it, I have an investment system very well suited to bubble times like that : )

Anybody remember super high growth / momentum investing?
Totally the wrong board, but maybe it has entertainment value

It can't get much simpler than this:
* Start with the ~1700 stocks in the Value Line database.
* Find the 40 stocks with the highest reported five-year rate of sales growth per share. (this field is updated only annually for each stock)
* Of those 40, buy equal dollar amounts of the 10 stocks which are currently furthest above their respective 52 week low prices. (measured one day before your trading)
* Hold those 10 stocks for a month, repeat.

Unsurprisingly, this likes exuberant markets, including bungee rebounds.
The surprising thing is that it does not that badly on average the rest of the time, too.
Final result 28.8%/year 1997 to date versus 9.0% for the S&P 500, at least in backtest.
On relatively sane risk metrics (size and frequency of rolling years having a shortfall below a reasonable return), this 10 stock portfolio is only a tad riskier than the S&P 500.
Mixing a little of this yeast into the "loaf" of your portfolio wouldn't be so crazy.
Come to the dark side!

Figures after trading costs, includes dividends, no provision for tax.
Year    Screen      S&P
1997 43.3 27.9
1998 86.1 34.5
1999 172.5 18.4
2000 19.3 -10.8
2001 7.3 -8.0
2002 -45.9 -18.9
2003 154.5 23.0
2004 32.0 8.9
2005 14.2 7.5
2006 28.1 13.8
2007 -2.4 1.9
2008 -29.9 -32.9
2009 144.0 25.5
2010 25.5 14.2
2011 -1.0 2.5
2012 -4.0 17.1
2013 106.8 27.6
2014 23.8 12.9
2015 9.9 1.9
2016 28.1 14.4
2017 36.8 21.8
2018 -8.1 -3.5
2019 12.4 29.9
2020 127.3 16.9
2021 36.5 30.5
2022 -10.9 -19.0
2023 18.4 17.5 (half year not annualized)

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (65) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community