Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 6
Two ships have been attacked in the strait, one off Oman and the other off the UAE, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British maritime security agency.
While Iran has yet to officially confirm that the vital waterway has been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.
The International Maritime Organization urged ships to avoid the strait of Hormuz. Arsenio Dominguez, its secretary-general, expressed deep concern over reports that several seafarers had been injured in attacks.
“I urge all shipping companies to exercise maximum caution,” said Dominguez. “Where possible, vessels should avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve.”
Maersk, the shipping multinational, announced on Sunday that it was halting passage through the strait of Hormuz and the Suez canal, another vital artery of the world economy, citing “safety” reasons.The Opec+ cartel of producing nations agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.
So is Trump’s bombing campaign about to expand into a “freedom of navigation” mission?
The Suez AND Strait of Hormuz?
Pete Kegseth has a new headache. This simply wasn’t one of the scenarios in “Call of Duty”.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I believe it’s called “mission creep”. Who knew they’d be creeping so soon?
No. of Recommendations: 4
While Iran has yet to officially confirm that the vital waterway has been blocked,Doesn't matter. As expected, the insurance industry is not sitting on it's hands.
Carriers start issuing cancellation notices over Gulf conflict
Risks start to be covered on hour by hour pricing, premiums set to surge
By this morning, the fallout was clear: a cascade of "Notice of Cancellation" clauses, a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial fleets, and a market preparing for a Monday morning of unprecedented volatility.
Major marine war risk providers, including Oslo-based Skuld and NorthStandard P&I, have already begun issuing formal 72-hour cancellation notices for coverage in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. These notices, effective March 5, essentially reset the terms of engagement for any vessel entering the region.https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/break...Tonight, the Beeb reported Lloyds has stopped insuring ships in the Gulf, but I do not see anything about that on the wire, yet.
Unless the Saudis feel like underwriting all the traffic, doesn't matter how much they increase production, because no-one will risk picking it up.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
The vital waterway faces mounting disruption after German shipping giant Hapag‑Lloyd halts transits, an oil tanker “Skylight” was attacked off Oman, and Iran reports a vessel sinking following an “unauthorized passage.”
Maritime authorities warn of elevated risks but say no official closure has been declared.https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/02/world/video/tan...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Pete Kegseth has a new headache. This simply wasn’t one of the scenarios in “Call of Duty”.
***
hee hee now that - is good stuff. And all great humor is usually based in the truth :)
No. of Recommendations: 10
So is Trump’s bombing campaign about to expand into a “freedom of navigation” mission?
The Suez AND Strait of Hormuz?
Possibly. I mean, this is the reason that generations of Presidents have declined to decapitate the Iranian government, despite them having been consistently horrific for close to fifty years. We've long had the ability to go in there and kill the leadership and bomb the bejeezus out of many of their military installations. We didn't refrain from doing so because no one realized how horrible the government was, or because anyone wanted them to persist. We just didn't have a great answer to the question is what results from that. Because unless you're planning on moving massive numbers of troops in country, you don't end up having a lot of control of what happens next (and even then, see Iraq).
It's not really clear what the Administration has planned for the aftermath of killing Iranian leadership, or how they intend to shape events in the region. As terrible as he was, killing Khameini doesn't necessarily mean anything good is going to happen. The regime could still hold onto power, of course - they've spent these decades repressing and obliterating any domestic challengers to their power, so there's not much strength or organization among the people to try to seize power (the Venezuela scenario, kill the leader but still stuck with the regime). Or the country could simply descend into chaos or a continual struggle between factions who never manage to resolve the conflict (the Libya scenario after Qaddafi was killed). It is theoretically possible that a new better government might arise without us actually putting boots on the ground, though it's kind of hard to see where that comes from - importing a royal relative might look appealing, but without any actual power base there there's a strong danger of falling into one of the first two scenarios.
And then, there's the risk of the conflict spreading and creating more chaotic states than just Iran. That's one of the regime's possible methods to try to stay in power. They will want to regionalize the war into Lebanon and the Gulf States, up the disruption as much as possible, so that there's more of a push for the U.S. and Israel to declare victory and freeze the status quo. If Trump just wants a scalp so that he is considered a consequential President, rather than trying to obtain any specific benefits for the Iranian people who oppose the regime, then that's a decent path to staying power for the Iranian leadership.
So, yeah - look for them to go after the straits, if they can.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Pete Kegseth has a new headache. This simply wasn’t one of the scenarios in “Call of Duty”.
The line to the toilets will be so long, he will need to dig his own latrine. We don't know if it will be inside--or outside--the building.
No. of Recommendations: 19
The <Iranian> regime could still hold onto power, of course - they've spent these decades repressing and obliterating any domestic challengers to their power
That seems to be happening in the USA, as the GOP and billonaires hobble the press, independent investigators, collect what was private/secure information of individuals, build a militia that ignores the Judiciary etc etc etc.
The move toward white crusader nationalism is no less frightening than Islam.
