Post #529 by mungofitch on the Falling Knives board

Investment Strategies / Falling Knives

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My happy vision is that at some point in the next (say) 6 quarters Hershey will start seeing earnings estimate upgrades instead of downgrades, and they'll go back into fashion. Meanwhile, the business isn't going away, and they're still the biggest confectioner in the US.

No happy vision yet! Stock down to $143-ish today, down from $169 at year end when I wrote that. Dividend yield up to 3.8%.

Value Line, ever the optimists, has a price target of $240-290 for 3-5 years out. Middle of those ranges corresponds to 17%/year plus dividends from here. Hope springs eternal. I don't believe such forecasts, though a thought occurs: How much worse would reality have to be, for this to be a bad investment at this juncture?

I'm not losing sleep. Seems like a margin of safety, and I'm patient enough that the price doesn't really matter until I decide to sell. Just a spectator sport in the mean time.

Jim

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