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All those 400-500 daily drops in the Dow that have been happening since April, and a couple of times where it lost 1000(!) points in a week, turning our bowels to water......

And here is Fidelity sending me this:
SPY hit 52 week high @ 525.83 trigger as of 05/15/2024 09:34 a.m. ET.

Just glad we didn't panic and sell out. Good Mechanical Investing is like roping yourself to the mast.

But I did put on a couple of hedges. Which I closed out yesterday.

From a market commentator & FA that I follow:

"We got the CPI number everyone wanted and not only did the S&P 500 (SPY), $529.78 closing market price, make a new all-time high yesterday, it blew right through the previous intraday high of $524.61 from March 28th."

...

"But how do you reconcile the fact that most Americans feel so downbeat about the economy and their future? Does that make any sense when the markets are at all-time highs?

Well, we know that inflation is impacting consumers ... "

...

"I continue to take a more cautionary outlook for the equity markets now and will continue to add to hedges on legs up while continuing to shift assets over to bonds and other fixed-income investments. "


Last night my timing signal was:
Potential recession, obey SMA sell signal.
Timing: IN stocks (+12.0% vs. SMA) (# 29 consecutive weeks) possibly in recession

Last night my timing signal was:
Potential recession, obey SMA sell signal.

yes confusing it is.

Keep in mind this known thing about SMA trend following.

Criteria that Refute- Moving averages do well in trending markets but they generate many false signals in choppy, sideways markets.

Description- After a crossover is identified, it is considered "not yet confirmed". Then additional confirmation is sought by watching the slope of the moving average.

Example; The "Economic Modern Family" (@MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for "Market Analysis".

Three or four of the following have sideways trends while the three market ETF are seeing 52wH.

Modern Family:        Symbol:    Status:*     Confirmed:  Roles: (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)
S&P 500 Index           .SPX      Bullish         Yes     - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW          EQAL      Bullish         Yes     - gauge the health of many Large-cap & Mid-cap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000            IWM       Bullish         Yes     - gauge the health of many Small-cap & some Micro-cap companies within the U.S.
Transportation          IYT       Bullish       Not Yet   - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail                  XRT       Bullish         Yes     - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Banks          KRE       Bullish       Not Yet   - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech                 IBB       Bullish       Not Yet   - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor           SMH       Bullish         Yes     - innovation: a major player technology trends
As of (LastD)           ---      16-May-24    16-May-24                                           ---

GD_

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