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discussion.fool.com - Control panel speculating like its

wsj.com - Market speculation meme stocks

Meme Stocks and YOLO Bets Are Back and Fueling the Market’s Rally
Shares of unprofitable companies have outperformed since early April, and investors are now speculating like it’s 2021

By Jack Pitcher, The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2025

Forget the Magnificent Seven. Investors are now learning to love the Unprofitable 858.

Meme stocks and money-losing companies are now back in favor, and underpinning a rally that has lifted the market to records. …

The speculative rally has been part of a recent broadening beyond just the big tech shares that have driven the bulk of market gains this year. It isn’t necessarily surprising to see parts of the market that had been hit hardest during a downturn also outperform on the way back up, analysts say, but longer periods of froth can often end poorly…

Just three months after individual investors were the most bearish they have been since 2009, the YOLO [‘you only live once’] trade is back… [end quote]

The stock market is in a risk-on mood. SPX and NASDAQ index are at record highs. VIX is low.

The Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Greed. Margin balances in securities accounts, which correlate with SPX, are high. The trade is risk-on as stocks and junk bond prices are rising much faster than the price of the 10 year Treasury.

Treasury prices are stable with a positive yield curve from 2 years on. The important 10 year Treasury has averaged 4.4% since the start of 2025. The real (inflation-adjusted) yield of the 10 year Treasury is 1.87%. This has fluctuated in a stable channel just below 2% since November 2022. The 10 year TIPS yield is slightly higher at 2.0%, close to the normal yield prior to the 2008 financial crisis and the Fed’s repression of interest rates.

USD continues its decline which began at the start of 2025. Gold is stable but copper, silver and oil are rising. Eight members of the OPEC Plus oil producers group said Saturday that they would pump an additional 548,000 barrels a day starting in August, equivalent to roughly half a percent of global production, which may cause a fall in the price of oil.

nytimes.com

OPEC Plus Agrees to Pump More Oil in August

The increase, which the group said was a response to “a steady global economic outlook,” was higher than some analysts expected and could lead to lower oil prices.

The big news this week was the OBBBA which was signed into law. This will have many Macroeconomic impacts. The tax reductions for upper incomes will likely be a boost for the asset markets.

The political slicing and dicing that went into the creation of the OBBBA was banned on METAR. Now that the OBBBA has been signed into law it becomes open to discussion since it will have enormous fiscal impact on the economy and will impact our investments. During discussions, please avoid partisan politics and focus on the economic/ investment aspects. This article has several illuminating charts. We already know that the OBBBA shunts government spending away from the poor and middle class…

The OBBBA also impacts the energy markets.

nytimes.com

How the G.O.P. Bill Will Reshape America’s Energy Landscape

Here’s a rundown on the winners and losers in the legislation muscled through Congress.
How the G.O.P. Bill Will Reshape America’s Energy Landscape

Here’s a rundown on the winners and losers in the legislation muscled through Congress.

By Brad Plumer, The New York Times, July 3, 2025

The giant policy bill muscled through Congress by Republicans is poised to remake American energy by slashing tax breaks for wind and solar power and electric cars while maintaining some federal support for sources like nuclear reactors and geothermal plants. [end quote]

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Manufacturing employment continues its gradual decline beginning in 2023.

Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business ®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. Services represent about 80% of GDP.

Part of the OBBBA is dramatic increase in funding for ICE to ferret out and deport illegal immigrants. Many of these work in service roles so removing them will have a Macro impact on agriculture, hospitality and healthcare. Americans will demand higher wages so the effect will be inflationary.

People in the lowest 10% of income distribution in the U.S. stand to lose noncash government benefits such as Medicaid coverage and food stamps worth nearly $1,600 annually on average, according to an analysis of an earlier version of the bill by the Congressional Budget Office.

The OBBBA slashes over $1 trillion in healthcare spending over the next decade, mostly from Medicaid, the joint federal and state program that provides health insurance to poor Americans. It is the biggest cut to federal healthcare spending—and to Medicaid—in history. Along with other Trump administration changes to the rules for Obamacare plans, the reduction in subsidies is projected to reduce the number of people with coverage by another 5.1 million if Congress doesn’t extend them. Millions – perhaps 10% of the U.S. population – will lose health insurance coverage. Hospitals will be hit with unreimbursed emergency care. Rural hospitals may be forced to close. Insurance companies, hospitals and pharmaceutical/ medical device companies will be hit. State budgets will be hit – bigly – if they want to continue insuring their populations.

The tremendous increase in the federal deficit will play out over years. CBO projects an increase of roughly $2.4 trillion in primary (non-interest) budget deficits over the 2025-2034 period. This increase is primarily due to substantial reductions in revenues and non-interest outlays. Furthermore, when accounting for the increased interest costs on the additional debt, the total impact on the deficit rises to nearly $3 trillion.

But the METAR is a short-term weather report.

The METAR for next week is sunny.

Wendy

Congressional Budget Office
Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025

wsj.com - Medicaid cuts healthcare trump bill

ismworld.org - ISM report on business

All Employees, Manufacturing

ismworld.org - ISM report on business