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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: PucksFool ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/03/25 8:54 AM
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https://ritholtz.com/2011/06/adps-job-data-reliabi...

Yesterday’s selloff was triggered in part by a weak ADP report, and fears of a broader economic slowdown.

Lets see if we can navigate the crosscurrents here to discern what, if anything, is happening.
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Author: PucksFool ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/03/25 8:56 AM
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Here is what he said on BlueSky.

ADP employment data has not closely followed Non-Farm Payroll -- it's a measure of mostly older and larger companies; it misses newer, smaller firms, which make up so much of the economy...

There is some signal there, but a whole lot more noise
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Author: Aussi ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/03/25 10:10 AM
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Not sure if it is intentional but the Ritholtz link is from 2011.

Aussi
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Author: PucksFool ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/03/25 12:38 PM
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I didn't notice that. It is striking how it is still relevant.
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Author: OrmontUS ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/03/25 5:12 PM
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The Fed will have to thread the needle between inflation and slow growth while trying to ignore the overt noise out of the administration in Washington.

Jeff
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Author: Timer321   😊 😞
Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Ritholtz says the signal to noise ratio is noisy
Date: 12/04/25 6:28 AM
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Unemployment in the new year will get nasty. We will see deflation creep in.
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