Post #248 by mungofitch on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

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If correct it leads to the question what chances any of us has to pick stocks in even different areas - without being an expert for this type of company, and that type of company and the next one might be interested in etc.

Some industries and types of firms are more predictable than others, so it's reasonable to expect that some communities will be much more successful than others at making predictions.
The Saul folks have picked an exuberant, but hard to predict, end of the market.

By comparison it's not hard to predict a year ahead who the business leaders will be in, say, railroads or candy or even credit cards.
Even growth rates aren't that hard to predict.
Of course knowing that leadership may be of little use in predicting the stock prices, but at least business predictability makes one variable more constrained.

Jim

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