No. of Recommendations: 3
I honestly don't know why they have been struggling so much recently
I assumed Carvana was outcompeting them. At first I thought CVNA would wipe out for the reasons pretty much in the Hindenburg report, but more recently I haven't been sure if they'd succeeded at "fake it til you make it" or if the short thesis was wrong. The ownership appeared so sketchy either way I've never seriously researched or considered it, and hadn't followed it due to limited time.
What worries me is KMX is Sears and CVNA is Amazon. The numbers are just absurd (CVNA ttm revenue $18B, market cap $46B, EV $50B; KMX respectively $28B, $5B, $24B).
I look at total shares short as secondary indicator and it _increased_ for Carmax from end of Sep to end of Oct.
I've owned KMX off and (mostly) on for 20 years, after Arne Alsin recommended it in his value investing newsletter on TheStreet. A most of that time I thought they were patient, disciplined, and were playing the long game but lately it has felt like they are just losing to a more aggressive competitor. I haven't bought the dip and considered selling into it for tax purposes.
