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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 0
am not seeing a clear signal that this has been knocked off-trend running the past ~2 decades.
even if mexico\canada friendshoring has slowed, it is not clear that has resulted in acceleration within america.
does anyone have a reliable combination of forward indicators to support?
No. of Recommendations: 0
Weatherman,
From 1949 to 1980, the corporate tax rate was in the 50% ballpark. The top income tax bracket was higher. That was the bedrock of a very successful industrialization policy.
Until we return to much higher taxes, all of this is mostly a no-go.
The elephant in the room that no one will discuss is raising taxes. It is the only way to get where we need to go.
Not raising taxes invites a great depression. The know-it-all all might even default on the debt.
No. of Recommendations: 0
does anyone have a reliable combination of forward indicators to support?
Not really "forward indicators" but several instances of automakers moving production to the US: Nissan consolidating production of an SUV model in the US, that they previously were going to consolidate in Japan. GM moving production of the Equinox from Mexico to the US. Honda increasing production of the CR-V in the US, at the expense of a plant in Canada. On the other hand, Ford dropping the US built Escape, and closing the plant*, because it was the lowest APT and GP model in the line, while continuing the Mexican Bronco Sport.
*supposedly, the Lousiville plant will be retooled for an "affordable" EV pickup in a couple years, in spite of Ford's stated intent to continue to ramp up ATP and GP, and it's near $20B writeoff of EV investments and pivot back to ICE powertrains.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
Steve,
Exports of cars? Are they increasing?
Domestic supply alone is just spinning wheels.
No. of Recommendations: 0
car sector is far too narrow...and we didnt really need china for that.
am really interested in trend on reshoring everything critical\essential, as the gop makes more global enemies from allies no longer wasting time on 1-sided deals and bribes.
am unsure if it is just too soon for confidence in even the most reliable indicators.
the more complex the item and supply chain (e.g., high end electronics), trump is actually driving those away as only the final tariff need be paid by end consumer, rather than every step that crosses back into america. scaled american participation in intermediate steps has been wrecked...
(and hey, trump figured bananas and coffee isnt happening at all!)
No. of Recommendations: 0
T is a know it all.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Exports of cars? Are they increasing?There appears to be a y/y increase vs 2024. But overall volume is small. With much of the rest of the world swinging toward EVs, while the US reverts to ICE, and the USian obsession with building the biggest things people can possibly pay for, US products may be increasingly irrelevant to much of the rest of the world going forward.
Here's data through Q3 of this year.
2025 US Car Exports: Top Destinations & Shipping Trendshttps://www.wcshipping.com/blog/us-car-exports-202...Steve
No. of Recommendations: 3
car sector is far too narrow...and we didnt really need china for that.
But it is highly visible, and uses a lot of resources and labor.
...the more complex the item and supply chain (e.g., high end electronics),
Boeing used to be a very visible example of high end engineering and production. But that company is so fouled up now, that it is hemorrhaging market share. What's worse, management doesn't seem concerned with loss of commercial market share, as they cozy up with the Pentagon. Thing is, Boeing is so fouled up even the Pentagon is pushing back, recently cancelling it's order for the E-7, a proposed replacement for the E-3 AWACS, due to cost and schedule overruns.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 3
Take it away from the engineers and give it to the bean counters.
What could go wrong?
No. of Recommendations: 0
My IP lawyer of course is an engineer. The guy is honest, loves what he is doing.
What could go wrong? He methodically chases everything down. He was way off target for my needs....$$$$ Yes he is honest, but he will rack up the bills.
