No. of Recommendations: 6
To make an obvious point, the float (which is a form of leverage) earns better returns when rates are higher. Also competition from PE was way higher during the time of low rates.
The latter is a big deal. The first one isn't, really.
Nominal rates are up. Real after-tax rates, not very much. At the very short end at the moment, yes, but that won't last. At the long end they've barely budged.
e.g., 10 years ago, 10 year US T bonds yielded 2.49% and inflation was about 1.33%, real return before tax 1.16%
At the moment the bond yield is 4.16% and MCT inflation in the last year has 2.36% and fairly steady, leaving real return before tax 1.80%
An increase of 0.64% before tax isn't much of a leap.
If the tax rate were unchanged and at current levels, the net real after-tax increase in returns would have been 0.51% on typical long bonds.
(It's a pretty similar story for corporate bonds)
We do have a lot at the very short end, and for several months the real return on T-bills has been positive, but that is the exception not the rule. It's likely to fade away within a year given what the yield curve is saying. And bear in mind that 1% interest with 1% inflation is a higher real after-tax return than 3.5% interest with 3.5% inflation.
Jim
