It is an interesting situation. There are many possible futures.

Consider this bit...
"...earnings estimates for software companies have trended higher despite seemingly daily evidence that AI will crush future profits."

What evidence would that be?

I observe that one of the areas which LLMs are most useful in a real world real business way is increasing the productivity of programmers. Software firms employ a lot of programmers. Their costs will likely go down. So the single most certain outcome is good for those companies.

Then we get on to the many uncertain consequences.

The perceived risks seem to arise from forecasts that no company will buy or lease software any more, they'll just vibe it into existence. Outside the fluffiest end of the software ecosystem--emoji designers?--I'm more than a little bit dubious about their certainty. Automating drafting didn't put architects and engineers out of business. Heck, it didn't even put draughtsmen out of business.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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