No. of Recommendations: 18
Bitcoin almost fell below $60K USD today, almost down 50% from October of last year.
I've been publicly of the opinion that the correct prices is approximately zero dollars ...On one hand, yes, it has always been plain that bitcoin has zero intrinsic value as a financial security.
But that doesn't mean its market value will go to zero. Lots of worthless things have noticeable market value, though for most such items a very high value doesn't last forever. For every Rembrandt there are tons of things like Beanie Babies come then go, whose price charts resemble simulations of heat death.
It was ever thus.
Have a glance at the price of South Sea Company shares in 1720.
https://finaeon.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/dow.....and the five year chart of the NFT price index.
https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/nft-indexplus ça change, plus c'est la même choseMy personal line of reasoning for my own view of the future price---squiggly up, then squiggly flat, then squiggly down, then "who cares"---comes from the following observations:
* No matter what they profess, essentially everyone holding bitcoin is doing so because they think the price will go up. (Plus a few folks in the business of serving or fleecing that dominant bunch)
* There is a finite population of such people and organizations.
* Having no intrinsic value, like any other capital good the price can go up only so long as there is rising marginal demand to own it. Constant demand won't do it: even a slight upwards trend requires ever more buyers.
* ...so, beyond squiggles, the long term price rise trend WILL halt. It has to.
What are the likely implications of those pretty solid observations?
* Some time after the price stops rising on trend, people will
notice that this is the case. They will no longer believe it will go up further, will no longer be part of the population in #1 above, and some will start selling.
* This will have a positive feedback effect because it will drive down the price, and more and more people will give up and sell. It will take a long time, and there will be squiggles and cycles and bull traps on the way down, but the divestment will be underway.
* After the large scale participation fully unwinds, I imagine the last few remaining holdouts will continue trading among themselves at low prices forever. The rest of the world will move on.
Jim
