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*                         2/6      2/13     2/20     2/27/23
S&P 500 Index             4136.48  4090.46  4079.09  3970.04
Trailing 12 month PE      23.46    23.40    23.78    23.12
Trail Earnings yield      4.26%    4.27%    4.21%    4.33%
Forward 12 month PE       20.58    20.32    20.28    19.71   
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.86%    4.92%    4.93%    5.07%
90 day tbill yield        4.70     4.79     4.84     4.86
10 year tbond yield       3.53%    3.74%    3.82%    3.95%
Arezi Ratio               1.10     1.12     1.15     1.12
Fed Ratio                 0.73     0.76     0.77     0.78

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 64%
stocks, 36% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 44%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 86%.

Elan

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