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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: ajm101 ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 4581 
Subject: Re: Control Panel: The real economy without AI
Date: 08/05/26 3:16 PM
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Then: how does the future of that company look? Eliminating the circularity and seeing that the capex rate is around two orders of magnitude higher than revenues, I think the issues would be much more evident.

The issue here is that you can think of this "All AI" company as a newcomer to the world. If its profits are to support its capex and ultimately market cap, then at some point it has to have commensurate revenues and ultimately profits. How big is that number in 5-10 years? This composite company's revenue is someone else's expenditure. Where the heck are those going to come from in the real economy?


Exactly

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Unfortunate.

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To what extent does the manipulation and acting upon information contribute to the economic activity? How much is manipulation of information worth now? How much intelligence does it require? How much does it cost to acquire that intellect, human or otherwise? How does AI economic activity flow back into the broader AI sector, and broader economy? How much is intellect worth once it has been commoditized and what is the marginal utility of additional intelligence?

There are some unsettling and uncomfortable questions that pop out when pulling on those strings, and some are a bit bigger than investing or macroeconomics in nature.
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This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
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