Post #461 by weatherman on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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some idea of what your own PAID professionals think :
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-big-...

e.g., vanguard is ~4th most pessimistic asset manager regarding their own forecasts on the u.s. equity premium.

i prefer alternatives to CAPE (like hussman's) when comparing historical valuations betwixt\between nations.

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“GMO stands out as by far the most pessimistic asset manager of all with an average risk premium on US equities of -2.9%. No other institution comes even close with MFS the second lowest at -0.7% and Fidelity the third lowest at +1.2%. The highest equity risk premium on average came from Columbia Threadneedle at 5.4% followed by Wells Fargo Investment Institute at 5.1% and Pioneer Investment at 5.1% as well. ”

I haven’t read Hussman in a long time. I expect his US market expectations are much lower, yes?

I have an article here somewhere by Grantham of GMO, talking about a US market near-term melt up followed by a huge crash. Iirc he wrote it about 8 years ago. Predictions are hard, especially etc.

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