No. of Recommendations: 8
Yes, I know he's said it in the past, but that was then. This is now. BRK has too much ammo and too few elephants, and the problem will only get progressively worse. When he was smaller and lived in a target-rich environment, there was no way he'd give up his ammo for parity pricing. But today? Can you envision a deal showing up that WB wants to do but can't because it's too big? He has more than enough money for any future deals. And should some crazy scenario present itself that requires additional capital, he'll get creative as he has done so many times in the past.
But wouldn't he tell us if he's changed his criteria?
He'll probably eventually tell us, but there's no rush. It's not like it's the central thesis for investments in Berkshire. Buyback thresholds have changed in the past and will probably continue to evolve in the future.
So would WB buy back stock at a 5% discount to IV? I bet he would and has been. Would he buy back at a 1% discount? I don't know, but I think he should. I think he should buy right up to parity. The reason is I believe a very big problem coming up is returning capital to shareholders. We've had many discussions about the problem with dividends, but what do you do when you have a large and growing cash pile, a fully or overvalued stock price, and too few investment opportunities? WB should be buying back stock all the way up to IV to delay/reduce this inevitable problem.
This matters because if it's true, you can no longer look at his peak repurchase price and add 10% to get a minimum value on WB's belief on IV.
