No. of Recommendations: 8
To me it seems safest to go by the 20020103 to 20200103 period backtest because it doesn't have any booms or crashes, so it more likely to be close to the results that you'd most likely get. That's 18 years long, so good enough in duration.
For 5 it's CAGR 19.3% GSD 29% AT 4.7
For 5 HTD 10 it's CAGR 20.4% GSD 30% AT 2.7
For 10 HTD 15 is CAGR 18.5% GSD 25.2% AT 2.6
5 HTD 10 the clear winner.
All are clearly better than 100 stocks at 9.5% 22.6% and 0.3
And top 50 with annual rebalance at 11.0% 20.0% and 1.9
GSD is volatility, and they all are pretty high.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
The thing that concerns me with a 5 stock portfolio is that high volatility.
Running a decent sized portfolio, say 6 digits, with only 5 stocks could be too much to bear.
FWIW, I've run a 10HTD15 portfolio since 6/30/2025 which is up 37.4% vs. SPY 12.5% & QQQ 17.0%.
