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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: WendyBG HONORARY
SHREWD
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Number: of 3853 
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Sticking the soft landing, “Soonico
Date: 02/16/26 4:19 PM
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The wise and highly respected mungofitch wrote, "A purely financial asset has price elasticity around the consensus of what it ought to earn: rising demand doesn't cause rising price, rather rising price causes falling demand and (extremely weak) mean reversion. The fair value is the present value of all future possible distributions and any terminal value. The consensus of that estimate will certainly change a lot over time, changing the asset's price, but a change in demand alone generally won't (usually not much longer than the time for news to be disseminated)."

In theory, that's true. But as the wise and respected Yogi Berra noted, "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're not."

Wise and respected economist John Maynard Keynes noted, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

I won't say anything, but I will post a chart.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

And I will note in passing that I have my grandfather's passport, which was issued on October 30, 1929 in preparation for a cruise my grandparents took to Europe with my infant father. Just in time to meet American expatriates in Paris who had lost everything in the stock market crash and couldn't afford a ticket back home to the U.S.

Wendy
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