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Author: WendyBG HONORARY
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 3852 
Subject: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 9:55 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 8
I can remember the 1970s very clearly. Oil disruptions, gas lines, and most of all - inflation.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-toda...


Stock Market Today: Oil Extends Rally After IEA Warns of Record Disruption; Dow Opens Sharply Lower
Hormuz crisis deepens, raising risk of prolonged closure

..
The International Energy Agency slashed its forecast for oil-supply growth this year, and said the war in the Middle East “is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

A record release of strategic oil reserves announced Wednesday failed to halt a run-up in oil prices, and Brent crude futures were approaching $100 a barrel again on Thursday…

A series of strikes across the Middle East intensified concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy markets. Seven ships were hit in waters around Iran over the past day, including two foreign tankers carrying fuel oil that caught fire and leaked oil in Iraqi waters.

Also adding to concern: A report from Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency that Iran-backed groups could shut a crossing that controls traffic for vessels accessing the Suez Canal via the Red Sea…

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran...
Iran War Live Updates: New Supreme Leader Issues Defiant Statement

Iranian state media said Mojtaba Khamenei had released his first written statement as Iran’s new supreme leader…

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, in what Iranian state media said was his first public statement since being appointed. ..

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, added in his statement that Iran would not refrain from “avenging the blood of the martyrs” of Iran, particularly those killed in Minab, where a missile strike on a school killed dozens. …
[end quote]

One of the “martyrs of Iran” was Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, Iran’s previous leader and Mojtaba Khamenei’s father. That makes it personal.

Revenge is a significant element in modern Iranian political and Shiite religious culture, often framed as a “blood debt” or quest for justice following perceived martyrdom.

The U.S. consistently ignores cultural differences in international relations. We may find it reasonable to ally with a previous bitter enemy (such as Germany and Japan after World War 2) but other cultures would not. Ignoring cultural differences led to the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This will not be a short war.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/escalating-h...
Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure
Hopes for quickly reviving trade through the strait are dimming without U.S. naval escorts as Iran steps up attacks

By Jared Malsin,Summer Said and Shelby Holliday](https://www.wsj.com/news/author/shelby-holliday), The Wall Street Journal, Updated March 12, 2026 7:00 am ET

Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route…

American forces have hit Iran’s navy, and its drone and missile crews, in an effort to curb the threat. But Iran is still landing blows. Added to that are the risks of naval mines and Iranian submarines lurking below…

The strait handled 38% of the world’s seaborne crude-oil trade in the week before the war began, according to a United Nations trade agency. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are working to ramp up exports through alternative pipeline routes that bypass the strait. In the Saudi case, it means redirecting crude away from its refineries, tightening the market for refined fuel in the process… [end quote]

Fill up your gas tanks, folks. Even people with electric cars will feel the pinch since oil prices impact many products…as we saw in the 1970s.I can remember the 1970s very clearly. Oil disruptions, gas lines, and most of all - inflation.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-toda...


Stock Market Today: Oil Extends Rally After IEA Warns of Record Disruption; Dow Opens Sharply Lower

Hormuz crisis deepens, raising risk of prolonged closure

..
The International Energy Agency slashed its forecast for oil-supply growth this year, and said the war in the Middle East “is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

A record release of strategic oil reserves announced Wednesday failed to halt a run-up in oil prices, and Brent crude futures were approaching $100 a barrel again on Thursday…

A series of strikes across the Middle East intensified concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy markets. Seven ships were hit in waters around Iran over the past day, including two foreign tankers carrying fuel oil that caught fire and leaked oil in Iraqi waters.

Also adding to concern: A report from Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency that Iran-backed groups could shut a crossing that controls traffic for vessels accessing the Suez Canal via the Red Sea…

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran...
Iran War Live Updates: New Supreme Leader Issues Defiant Statement

Iranian state media said Mojtaba Khamenei had released his first written statement as Iran’s new supreme leader…

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, in what Iranian state media said was his first public statement since being appointed. ..

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, added in his statement that Iran would not refrain from “avenging the blood of the martyrs” of Iran, particularly those killed in Minab, where a missile strike on a school killed dozens. …
[end quote]

One of the “martyrs of Iran” was Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, Iran’s previous leader and Mojtaba Khamenei’s father. That makes it personal.

Revenge is a significant element in modern Iranian political and Shiite religious culture, often framed as a “blood debt” or quest for justice following perceived martyrdom.

The U.S. consistently ignores cultural differences in international relations. We may find it reasonable to ally with a previous bitter enemy (such as Germany and Japan after World War 2) but other cultures would not. Ignoring cultural differences led to the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This will not be a short war.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/escalating-h...


Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure
Hopes for quickly reviving trade through the strait are dimming without U.S. naval escorts as Iran steps up attacks

By Jared Malsin,Summer Said and Shelby Holliday](https://www.wsj.com/news/author/shelby-holliday), The Wall Street Journal, Updated March 12, 2026 7:00 am ET

Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route…

American forces have hit Iran’s navy, and its drone and missile crews, in an effort to curb the threat. But Iran is still landing blows. Added to that are the risks of naval mines and Iranian submarines lurking below…

The strait handled 38% of the world’s seaborne crude-oil trade in the week before the war began, according to a United Nations trade agency. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are working to ramp up exports through alternative pipeline routes that bypass the strait. In the Saudi case, it means redirecting crude away from its refineries, tightening the market for refined fuel in the process…
[end quote]

Fill up your gas tanks, folks. Even people with electric cars will feel the pinch since oil prices impact many products…as we saw in the 1970s.

Wendy
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Author: Timer321   😊 😞
Number: of 3852 
Subject: Re: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 10:03 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
The IEA is releasing 400 million bbl of oil.
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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3852 
Subject: Re: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 10:55 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Iran Submarine Capabilities
https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/iran-submari...

The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) commands a submarine force of approximately 28-30 vessels. The IRIN, along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), plays a crucial strategic role in Iran’s national security architecture due to the country’s dependence on the Persian Gulf for trade and security. Besides the Persian Gulf, Iran’s naval forces also operate in the Caspian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 3852 
Subject: Re: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 12:19 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
That's a little less than 4 days of global consumption, last I'd checked.
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Author: PucksFool 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3852 
Subject: Re: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 4:48 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
A couple of years ago I read the book How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain by Peter S. Goodman. It looked at the fragility of the global supply chain with respect to the COVID pandemic. It is a very good book well worth reading. Seemingly we learned nothing from that experience. Here we are 6 years later being told it will be over quickly again. Lies then, lies now, same liar.

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Author: Steve203 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3852 
Subject: Re: That 70s Show - Oil disruption
Date: 03/12/26 5:50 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 7

Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route…

Those rugged, Perry class, frigates that served so well in the 80s and 90s, are all gone now, either decomissioned or sold to other countries. The follow on LCS program was an abortion. The Constellation class frigate program was an abortion. Most of the Ticonderoga class cruisers are decomissioned. So, performing escort missions in the Gulf would require pulling Burke class DDGs away from carrier escort duty, because there is nothing else. Thank decades of rampant corruption in DoD procurement.

Steve
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