No. of Recommendations: 1
" Forget AI fundamentals or rockets, SpaceX’s trading on Tuesday is all about technical factors. It’s the day Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company joins the Nasdaq 100 index and that brings potential for stock volatility–but things will likely turn out fine.
• The Nasdaq 100 index is a who’s who of tech giants, and its 100 members had a market value of almost $40 trillion at recent prices. Nasdaq tweaked its rules to fast-track SpaceX’s inclusion because AI companies have become crucial to the broader market.
• Early inclusion in an index could drive volatility, particularly given that only a limited number of shares are trading right now. The Nasdaq is adding SpaceX at a float-adjusted weight that gives it the impact of a $300 billion market-cap company. Its total market capitalization stood at $2.1 trillion as of Monday’s close.
• That’s about 0.75% of the Nasdaq-100 market value. Given that roughly $800 billion is indexed to the Nasdaq-100, passive funds will need to buy about $6 billion in SpaceX stock, according to Barron’s math–or 6% of total available shares.
• Shares have swung wildly since SpaceX’s trading debut last month, although they have rallied lately. That might already reflect the indexation bump. Investors will have to wait to find out.
What’s Next: More stock will be accessible soon. Some 20% of shares become available for trading after the company’s first earnings report, due in a couple of weeks. That can ease indexation pressures.
—Al Root and George Glover"
