Be kinde to folk. This changeth the whole habitat.
- Manlobbi
Outskirts of Shrewd'm / Travel Wanderer
No. of Recommendations: 5
More to follow, but I posted a tremendous amount on my TMF board about SPG during 2020 covid collapse.
Net is that I didnt trust the nonsensical hypergrowth valuations of Zoom and others, which was my loss thru at least mid-2021, but eventually I was proven correct in thinking those bubbles would pop. Most Saul stocks (then) still below 2021 highs today, for example.
Instead I looked for beaten down value and saw SPG as a well managed higher-end “mall” company w a fortess balance sheet and one of best CEOs around in David Simon.
I rode SPG from the $60s in mid 2020 to about $165-170 when I sold at end of 2021.
The stock had a nice dip in 2022 to around $90 and has been sitting around $150 for a while now.
Divvys were suspended when covid forces mall closures, but a few Qs later they turned them back on and have been raising them every Q since.
So you have a strong dividend and a resilient business (and stock) that has seen massive bestdowns in GFC and Covid along with sizable 2022 dip and each time it recovers.
Barring retirement of David Simon, I am confident if SPG falls in a coming recession/market correction, that it will be yet another great opportunity to pounce.
Targets; $110, $100, $90.
If they manage not to cut dividends in a downturn, their yield could be 8-9% or more at those prices, too.
Dreamer
No. of Recommendations: 1
^^ Targets; $110, $100, $90.
If they manage not to cut dividends in a downturn, their yield could be 8-9% or more at those prices, too.^^
Nice catch if yours to have the guts to purchase commercial real estate during COVID. Nifty timing. As the saying goes, buy on fear, sell on greed.
Yet now it has probably reached mild fear from super fear when you purchased, as evident in the yields still strong today.
Yields above bonds but capital gains (and rent increases) on top even if rent prices merely track inflation. So the targets you are after might be unlikely - I like your observation that Simon proved it can handle the worst real estate conditions in a lifetime and still pumping out dollars as before the crisis, as if nothing happened if cameras were off the last few years as we just jumped from 2019 til 2024.
No. of Recommendations: 1
again - the thought here is likely no shot at a good entry price outside of some sort of economic catalyst such as a recession. David Simon not Buffett-old or anything, but has been at it a long time and his retirement could also be a shock. Not sure I like jumping in on an unknown CEO. But if a recession occurs, this is one of the top of my watchlist to try and catch at a lower price (again).
I was going to link to my TMF threads but since I sold in late 2021, those posts have since vanished when TMF moved to their new format. Que sera sera.
Dreamer
No. of Recommendations: 3
I was going to link to my TMF threads but since I sold in late 2021, those posts have since vanished when TMF moved to their new format. Que sera sera.You could use the datahelper tool to look up those old threads, if you have keywords you know were in there and if the posts were in the Saul Discussion group or Mechanical Investing or Berkshire or a few other specific boards:
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml
No. of Recommendations: 0
Unfortunately it was posted to my Where Angels Fear to Tread board...not Saul's as it did not fit the typical growth stock his board would be discussing.
I did have a poster (Raylight) save some board posts of mine, but have had trouble unpacking those files. May need to look into that again.
Dreamer
