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First of all many thanks to Manlobbi for bringing the boards back!!!!

I personally would have thought only old timers would migrate - but am pleasantly surprised too see new names

But with that I also see some potential dark clouds of conflict brewing - Hence this post.

I have been a lurker on this board - 18 years almost. Some of you know me personally. I essentially read Jim, FC, Ray and Zee ( whenever he posts)

I guess Jim's departure from MF made me go into a withdrawal tailspin and forced me to start posting 😂

Here's my take and perspective on these key folks in MI world over the years

(1) Zee : He's an enigma for most folks at the beginning. I have had the pleasure of knowing him personally.
(a) Data Authenticity: You simply can't beat him here. His length and breadth of data is simply incredible - I don't know any other individual source without any survival bias and that level of accuracy - he's literally a fanatic on this one
(b) Analytical API: I think majority of the credit on this goes to his son who custom wrote this for him. He refers to it as " mound of toast" - but in technical terms it's easy to do both local and global optimization ( SQL backend iirc)
(c) Honesty : I have not seen him lie.
(d) Personality : One of the most optimistic individuals I have met. That combined with being a teacher for most his life - you have to kinda reread his posts to understand his view. He's not a modeler like Jim - tends to not focus on the error term( sorry I am - if that statement sounds Greek - ignore)

Net he STRONGLY believes his analysis. The KEY REJOINDER: You will personally NOT replicate his results exactly - because he has access to a multidimensional, multilayered approach - and most of the time he's presenting one key concept. Just remember he WANTS to Help - as he has over the Years!

So you better have a compendium of his approaches to connect the dots

(2) Jim aka Mingo: Possibly the most revered guy around here.
(a) His approaches are mostly statistical models - so it's probabilistic and easy to follow for me. In that sense he's transparent about the success probability and thus the downside too

(b) His general perspective is incredible. If you want to learn about investing he's THE guy

(3) FC ie Flying Circus: One of the best resources for momentum based Quant approaches

I am curious about BS DETECTORS claims. But it's better to recognize it's just DIFFERENT than the others - not better or worse

Zee / Jim are mostly Contrarians

Hopefully this helps to add value to your thoughts

All the best in 2023+
Best

Here's my take and perspective on these key folks in MI world over the years

Thanks greatly for that anchak. And these compliments do not include the vast credit to many others here that produced the culture from earlier on, for example I already pointed to Elan on my second post, but there are many others either lurking (and some on holidays that disappear but then work their way back*).

Getting the culture right is extremely important. I believe the MI board is able to work this out itself, as it has done in the past. However, if anything gets out of hand, please let me know and I can act upon (within reasonable or common-sense observation) the consensus!

My own advice for the board: Please also remember to write your posts, at least sometimes, in as *complete* a manner as you can; for example explaining terms, or including an introduction if it isn't obvious what you are referring to or continuing from. As a heuristic, imagine someone reading the board for the first time: Write for them as well sometimes, along-side the 'insiders'. A club mentality is necessary to extent just for sheer efficiency, but please - as mungofitch does exceptionally well and others are perfectly capable (regarding this specific point about audience) - please write sometimes for a broader (maybe less informed, but what is valuable - curious) audience. It will benefit not only the community but in some cases even useful even for yourself in the long-term.

- Manlobbi

* On that note, please keep inviting past colleagues friends here. Do not assume that they know about this platform, as I am doing zero marketing, and relying upon the community itself to "invite itself" back.

anchak, have you had good results following Zeelotes? I'm curious because while he shows that he gets great results it seems doubtful someone could reproduce what he does. He is like the great maestro of countless indicators. Hundreds? Great secret indicators do not give bad signals because warning signs should have been seen from using other secret indicators. I'm not doubting his results but can anyone else come close to his results even if they buy all of his indicators?

Straightforward question with a tricky nuanced answer

(a) Most people who know me will certify that I am possibly one of the most direct and dont beat around the bush person. Yet this question requires a degree of finesse.
(b) We believe in destiny a lot in our culture - and I think having great returns from markets falls into that category.
(c) Yet , you always need to put in the hard yards to accomplish anything.

My own style: I have over the years developed my own models ( yeah not indicators - but models, inspired by Jim's assertion that I was possible to build statistical models successfully). I look at downside risk a LOT - my own professors taught me that building a good model is to first understand the 20 different ways it can go WRONG!
They are not magic either - closely relates to stuff Jim shares ( if the other guy is a good modeler and JIm's a GREAT one -any good quality model on the SAME DATA is bound to produce similar results)

Following Zee: He's one of the best readers of the market I have seen. Real snippet - just after the 2011 US Debt crisis correction and late 2011 when the Fed stepped into QE he said " I think this has legs to be a MULTI YEAR Rally". A lot of us were skeptical - yet I attended a retirement dinner hosted by one of his followers in 2013 - who trusted and followed it blindly!

So to me - I read and listen to anything he has to say or share purely to understand his perspective. That's the premium I am willing to pay in cost of the research.

Its not that because I am getting some MAGIC INDICATOR!!

So my first advice would be to read thru all the nuggets he has offered on the MI board - for FREE over the years.

The Bewilderment part: YES - this can be a bit frustrating. Because he as I mentioned before typically tends to present a singular concept at a time - while his system is an automated multilayered one. There's transition in markets - its one of the most difficult things to master.

Allocation: Based on what I know, and as Manlobbi asserted if you have a decent sized investment portfolio, you are typically invested most of the time ( markets go up 67% of the time if you extend beyond a 3-4 months outcome) and ability to move stuff around is limited.

Zee himself has a few slivers of rotating assets which he allocates to these shorter term systems he likes to research. IIRC - he mentioned he manages his family 401K mostly with BCC ( that BTW is his nomenclature, one of the founding fathers) and few macro stuff. And he had once shared a Blending system which is his lead allocation I think- which is similar to QTAA ie it rotates and is invested 100% of the time.

NET MSG: Do a tradeoff between the price premium ie whether its prohibitive for you, without thinking you are getting magic poured into your hands. The upside is learning if you are willing to put in the effort.

There's a LOT of good things here for free ..... I would suggest be conversant first with them - before jumping into other stuff

All the best!

Thanks anchak for taking the time to explain your thoughtful approach. BTW, I referenced 'secret indicators' and not 'magic'. I have never seen Zeelotes refer to them as magic, in fact he always says they should be used in context or concert with other models or indicators. If he is charging for these indicators and models (some I have heard cost hundreds), then he would likely want these to be 'secret'.

"while his system is an automated multilayered one"

That is what I would have thought, except it would seem that automation only occurs after he decides which indicators or models to use and how important one is compared to another.

"There's a LOT of good things here for free"

I agree he has shared many of ideas for free but I bet his work with the biggest impact on his returns are secret. Of note, his free ideas concerning the Presidential Year Cycle were helpful, although Sy Harding and others going back even much further have shown the low that often occurs late in the 2nd presidential year cycle. His work showing the backtesting of the New High New Low (NHNL) data gave one confidence in using such an indicator many years ago and I still use a version today. However, I did not see it mentioned (perhaps it wasn't known) that others had used NHNL data to time the market before. In fact, Dr. Alexander Elder had mentioned the use of moving averages with NHNL data in a book way before it was mentioned on the MF boards.

I manage about half of my funds with Bear Catcher type indicators. A small amount I try to trade. Anything more complicated than that I would never stop second guessing my methods. All the best to you as well.

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