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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 6
No. of Recommendations: 4
Pretty obvious the start of WW3 was Russia invading Ukraine backed by China / Iran.
These things take years to evolve, now regional confrontations with backing from key players and more countries being dragged in.
At home (UK) we have Iranian missile threats, Russian ships and subs reported and terrorism. Europe is very behind the curve.
I like to follow Niall Ferguson. Interesting dicussions on YT.
No. of Recommendations: 11
I post it because Ray Dalio is respected by quite some folks here.
I've busted on Ray before, but I think he is spot on in this case. The world order is changing, not in our favor, and trying to bomb our way out of it makes it worse.
No. of Recommendations: 22
Well maybe Ray, with all his billions, could actually DO SOMETHING about this ridiculous situation? I'm sitting here watching the world burn because of the moron the US has in charge, but I have such a small voice I can't really do sh$t about it.
No. of Recommendations: 13
Dalio: “To reiterate, I’m not saying that things will definitely progress further to an all-out world war. I don't know what's going to happen. I still hope for a peaceful world built on win-win relationships rather than damaged by lose-lose ones.”
It doesn’t seem that the current US leadership (or electorate) believes in win-win relationships. Hopefully we can pull back from the cliff edge.
No. of Recommendations: 7
The world order is changing, not in our favor, and trying to bomb our way out of it makes it worse.
The world is indeed changing. In order to be able to see what's happening you need to leave your politics at the door. Which, sadly, most people are unable to do.
The ones left standing will be the USA, Russia, and China. In that order.
We have had 2 categories of countries, First World and Third World. I have always wondered "What about Second World? Are there any 2nd world countries and if so, who?"
The last couple of years which countries are becoming Second World is more and more evident. They aren't moving from 3 to 2 but form 1 to 2. Sad, really.
Pick up a newspaper and you will be able to identify them yourself.
But like I said, in order to see it you have to leave your politics and preferences at the door.
But none of this has anything to do with Berkshire Hathaway.
No. of Recommendations: 4
The ones left standing will be the USA, Russia, and China. In that order.
I go with USA, Europe, and China. There are a lot of newly emerging countries.
No. of Recommendations: 31
The ones left standing will be the USA, Russia, and China. In that order.
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I go with USA, Europe, and China. There are a lot of newly emerging countries.
I'm not sure that a "last 3 standing" discussion is the best way to look at the world, but I agree Russia might not be one to make the cut, being #9 in both GDP and population. They have a lot of land and a lot of bullets and a lot of ire, but the economy is about the size of Canada or of Italy, and only a little bigger than the GDP of Tokyo. The Not So Great Power.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
...
I go with USA, Europe, and China.
Have you paid attention to what's been going on with most of the European countries? They are practicing economic and demographic suicide.
Even Germany. When the 2016 Cologne New Year events happened I said "Well, the German men are going to take care of that problem!" But they didn't.
I'm not sure that a "last 3 standing" discussion is the best way to look at the world, but I agree Russia might not be one to make the cut, being #9 in both GDP and population.
I don't know about Russia. The first thing to keep in mind is "Everything is a lie." Everything. From everybody.
As Winston Churchill said about Russia,. "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
We visited St. Petersburg in 2013 and Moscow & St P in 2018. Our 25-something year old tour guide in 2018 spoke good (not perfect) English. She said that in high school they had to learn another language, their choices were English and another which I forget--maybe German. She said about 3/4 picked English. None of the young people have known the Soviet Union.
Russia is not the USSR.
Lufthansa screwed up our boarding pass on the flight back to the US. Aeroflot to Frankfurt, then Lufthansa to Houston. The Russians went out of their way to straighten it out and to help up. (Lufthansa changed the Confirmation # without telling us, so when I gave them the # we had, it wasn't valid in their system. We almost got stranded in Frankfurt.)
I remarked to my wife that there was no longer any reason for us to treat Russia as an enemy. IMHO, a big part of the reason for a lot of the ongoing troubles is that we (the West) kept poking at Russia as if it was still the USSR.
They have a lot of land and a lot of bullets and a lot of ire, but the economy is about the size of Canada or of Italy, and only a little bigger than the GDP of Tokyo.
I have read counter-arguments that GDP, etc. is an incorrect way to measure the Russian economy. But who knows? Everything is a lie.
And little Ukraine's army is on the outskirts of Moscow.
So, anyway, USA, somebody, and China. Which countries would be the candidates to be that "somebody"? Europe isn't a country and neither is the EU.
I think we are closer to "weeks where decades happen" than "decades where nothing happens". What a time to be alive.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Living in the UK, I have to agree the policies currently promoted by Labour are econmically highly self destructive.
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 36
I remarked to my wife that there was no longer any reason for us to treat Russia as an enemy. IMHO, a big part of the reason for a lot of the ongoing troubles is that we (the West) kept poking at Russia as if it was still the USSR.
It is not the USSR, it is a smaller country who has more of a madman in charge than any USSR leader since Stalin.
Putin has launched four wars of aggression: the Second Chechen War (1999), the Russo-Georgian War (2008), the annexation of Crimea/Donbas intervention (2014), and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is not run-of-the-mill destabilizing as they used to do (and the US too: see: Iran, Chile, Guatemala, Cuba, Congo, Nicaragua, Panama, etc.) Putin’s record also includes boots on the ground, tanks, artillery, and the other trappings of modern mechanized warfare. That’s a pretty concerning record, I would think.
Capitalist, communist, whatever else, I don’t care. Vietnam is nominally Communist and we’re great traders with them. We seem to have no political disputes at all! It’s how the leaders play that matters, and Putin is not one you want on the playfield if you’re trying to keep calm and carry on. Unfortunately for now, Putin = Russia.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The ones left standing will be the USA, Russia, and China. In that order
I am seriously interested in what is your definition of "left standing ". Understanding that would help me develop a list of countries left standing.
Aussi
No. of Recommendations: 4
I am seriously interested in what is your definition of "left standing ". Understanding that would help me develop a list of countries left standing.
"left standing" means the countries that are de-facto the BMOC (Big Man On Campus). The ones who have outsized influence in the world and/or their sphere of influence.
Google AI says "Current spheres of influence involve major powers asserting political, economic, or military dominance over neighboring regions or strategic areas to shape outcomes. Examples include the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere, Russia in Ukraine/Eurasia, and China in the South China Sea/Eurasia."
I'm not sure that there is a "sphere of influence" that incorporates western Europe. It doesn't seem to be mentioned.
Looking at the recent world events since January 3, 2026 and considering Ukraine, the underwhelming performance of China's military products, the Iran walkover ... it looks to me that what will shake out is one #1 and 2 runners-up. And a bunch of has-been also-rans.
No. of Recommendations: 9
For the US states it seems to me that California is the top state for economic and cultural influence with a couple of states wanting the position and way behind.
So if the US is number 1 in the world, and if in my opinion, California is number 1 region in the US, does that make California the number one region in the world?
There may be some disagreement about this!
Aussi
No. of Recommendations: 16
Until he's outta here I think we are stuck with one man owning the media, thus all of us too. What sells (ads) well isn't building a ballroom, balancing the budget, making peace, negotiating with anything. What sells is to destroy something, anything. The more traditional or formerly treasured institutions getting over-run brings more attention, the journey inevitably seeks these targets. Rupert has mastered the game of how to sell.
Our one-stop shopping once was US based, now it is the world sucked in. We chose a man who burns things down and crawls out with a paycheck, there's not a person ever lived who can come close to matching the record this guy presents as to how much he takes from others that ends up with him.
But don't discount chances of plus-and-minus deeds, cut a $10k check to all Americans, make the future jobs for all politicians impossible via building short term popularity.
The Don was at a WFC fight yesterday for a reason. And his behavior works as well, if not better, than any behavior politically based ever has. 50 years of media attention/domination, and many more to go.
As I say, life is great...if you can stand it!
No. of Recommendations: 8
The Don was at a WFC fight yesterday for a reason. And his behavior works as well, if not better, than any behavior politically based ever has. 50 years of media attention/domination, and many more to go.
Long live the only president who will do what all others before him talked and talked and talked about. Shame on anyone who voted for the dumbest bitch in the history of our country and the most corrupt politician (jazz hands) for VP...to finish ruining our great country.
Could you please just stick to telling the story about how you inherited your Berkshire shares? You’ve only repeated that a couple hundred times. Thanks for your attention to this matter 😊.
No. of Recommendations: 6
The TDS on this board is quite high.
