No. of Recommendations: 13
Real price gain +14.89%
...
Just to demonstrate that I've been paying attention, how much did the value increase in the last year?
Oh, much less.
Value per share is up less than book per share, too. I'd say real "easily observable" value per share is up mid single digits in the last year.
Of course you can estimate value in a number of different ways, so the exact number depends what method you prefer. I'll do fresh "elaborate" figures when the Q2 books come out.
But FWIW, using the specific "super smoothed real book" method mentioned in the original post of this thread, I get value per share up inflation + 5.19% from end-June last year to end-June this year*. This is fairly low because the (extremely smoothed) valuation metric is still taking into account the 7-8 quarter net flat spot in real book per share starting end 2021. The smoothed line is pulling up again now, slope is now inflation + 7.0%/year.
Jim
* I necessarily used an estimate of Q2 book, but any error in that estimate is not a very big deal because of the substantial data smoothing--the latest data point determines only 12% of the smoothed level, so even a 10% error in my Q2 book estimate would only give an error of 1.2% in the smoothed value. And I'm pretty sure my book value estimate doesn't have a 10% error margin.
