*                         12/2     12/9     12/16    12/23/24
S&P 500 Index             6032.38  6090.27  6051.09  5930.85
Trailing 12 month PE      28.95    29.41    29.13    28.46
Trail Earnings yield      3.45%    3.40%    3.43%    3.51%
Forward 12 month PE       24.33    24.58    24.34    23.78
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.11%    4.07%    4.11%    4.20%
90 day tbill yield        4.58     4.42     4.34     4.34
10 year tbond yield       4.18%    4.15%    4.40%    4.52%
Arezi Ratio               1.33     1.30     1.26     1.23
Fed Ratio                 1.02     1.02     1.07     1.07

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 58%
stocks, 42% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 48%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 83%.

Elan

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