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Posted on the wrong board...

There's lots of questions about the international and long-term ramifications of the seizure of Maduro - and amazing praise due to the military for the execution of this operation, once the order was given. But I'm actually far more curious about the more prosaic questions about what happens in Venezuela over the very near term. Who is actually going to run the country in the next few days and weeks, and how?

Pres. Trump's comments today suggested that "we" - presumably the United States - are going to run the country in the short term. But how would that work? We have no personnel in the country. We haven't invaded with troops, we have no diplomatic staff there (the embassy was closed and all personnel withdrawn in 2019)...and while Trump left open the possibility of putting a large number of boots on the ground, that seems inconsistent with what his supporters would countenance. So how would "we" actually run the country?

If it's not the U.S. directly running the country, then other possibilities would be Machado or someone else from the opposition party in coordination with the U.S. But Trump's comments on Machado seem to pretty clearly indicate that we're not looking for her to leave Spain and head back to Venezuela. And we haven't taken any steps to dislodge anyone else in the Maduro government, so there doesn't seem to be a plausible mechanism for her or anyone else from the opposition to take over.

Perhaps we're thinking that Delcy Rodriguez will be a compliant partner? Seems unlikely - she's a committed Chavista and loyal supporter of Maduro, and has already thrown water on that idea. We can threaten her with an invasion, of course - and no doubt she's being told that she has to follow U.S. demands. But that seems unlikely to get her to toe the line.

I suppose another possibility is for one or more military generals to take charge. No doubt some are feeling a wee bit unsettled in their position, given the complete and utter failure to defend against the U.S. marching in and capturing their President. A Rodriguez regime will be sorely tempted to put one or more military officials up against the wall for that failure, and maybe they decide that a sharp turn away from Chavism into an alliance with the U.S. can preserve their skins. But given that the military is filled with Chavistas loyal to the administration, that seems more like a recipe for civil war rather than a smooth takeover leading to a U.S. partner state.

The President's press conference was genuinely confusing. They obviously couldn't have had any prior arrangements with anyone on the Venezuela side about a post-Maduro government. They seem to be ruling out Machado or any other opposition partners. But they didn't roll in with any troops or personnel that would allow the U.S. to run the country directly. So - what's the plan for who's going to be in charge of Venezuela for the next few days and weeks? It sure seems like the idea is that it will just be the Maduro government (minus Maduro), but hoping that they'll now privatize the oil industry and give it to U.S. companies and stop the drug trade for us? I genuinely can't figure out what even the short-term strategy is....

It sure seems like the idea is that it will just be the Maduro government (minus Maduro), but hoping that they'll now privatize the oil industry and give it to U.S. companies and stop the drug trade for us? I genuinely can't figure out what even the short-term strategy is....

I'm om the same spot, and I think the reason it looks like there isn't a short term strategy, is because there isn't a short term strategy. So we are saying nice things, but - why rule out Machado? That was likely the deal made. Machado and Gonzolez are out it seems, and we focus on the oil. It's much easier to develop the oil with the Chavismos and Bolsichicos cooperating and benefiting. Good transaction.

My guess right now.

I'm om the same spot, and I think the reason it looks like there isn't a short term strategy, is because there isn't a short term strategy. So we are saying nice things, but - why rule out Machado? That was likely the deal made. Machado and Gonzolez are out it seems, and we focus on the oil. It's much easier to develop the oil with the Chavismos and Bolsichicos cooperating and benefiting. Good transaction.

My guess right now.

I mean - that's certainly one possibility, but it's an absolutely crazy proposition for the Administration to entertain. Why would anyone in the Administration think that would actually happen? Going into this, they would have to know that it was highly unlikely that the Chavismo government would even agree to start cooperating with the U.S. (and Rodriguez' address today kind of bears that out). The almost certain outcome was that if the Maduro government is left in place (just without Maduro) that no deal would be on offer.

But even if they did, the oil companies wouldn't really be in a position to go in and invest many billions of dollars over several years with the Chavista government remaining in place. How do you figure you won't just get nationalized out of your new investment and have all those shiny new assets seized, the way you were back in the day? I mean, Rodriguez is probably as Marxist as Maduro ever was. It's not like taking out Maduro - and just Maduro - will turn Venezuela into a safe place for multi-year multi-billion dollar investments. I mean, it's probably a rough financial proposition to make major investments in oil infrastructure anywhere, with WTI oil at only $57....but this seems like a particularly rough sell to your investment committee.

But even if they did, the oil companies wouldn't really be in a position to go in and invest many billions of dollars over several years with the Chavista government remaining in place. How do you figure you won't just get nationalized out of your new investment and have all those shiny new assets seized, the way you were back in the day? I mean, Rodriguez is probably as Marxist as Maduro ever was. It's not like taking out Maduro - and just Maduro - will turn Venezuela into a safe place for multi-year multi-billion dollar investments. I mean, it's probably a rough financial proposition to make major investments in oil infrastructure anywhere, with WTI oil at only $57....but this seems like a particularly rough sell to your investment committee.

I agree it's loony. But on the face of it, that's what I see. I was surprised a few weeks ago when they oil companies expressed no desire to invest in oil infrastructure and new fields, because that meant to me the admin didn't sound out oil companies in advance - when that's the only real thing you'd get interested in down there. You move in a fleet without the troop ships, and haven't sounded out the oil companies on the QT? If you listen to the narrative, Trump expects the oil companies to invest and then get paid back. Are we gonna guarantee that payback? How will that work? And I no longer think Marxism is much of a thing with Maduro or the VP, but hatred/despising the USA? Ya, that's a big thing - a unifying thing in Latin America for political tribes in some areas, but at one point 82% of Venezuelans had a favorable view of the US. Don't know how they see us now. Someone on the old boards used to go down there near the border with Colombia regularly.

I think what we're seeing is a lack of preparation ahead of time - looks like we're winging it. Crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.

I think the reason it looks like there isn't a short term strategy, is because there isn't a short term strategy.

Agreed. No one has thought this through, at least not in this administration. And now we're getting vague "we will run the country" without any visible means of doing so. Just like when they promised to "repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better", even though they never came up with "something better".

I'm not even sure if this administration realizes that this could disrupt oil for China (which it could...so that's one positive). I doubt anyone is thinking that far ahead.

If the next POTUS is a Dem, and the ICC has issued a warrant for the Felon, I think we should hand him over to the ICC. He should probably also be impeached since he didn't consult with Congress. More than one senator is complaining about that.

I was surprised a few weeks ago when they oil companies expressed no desire to invest in oil infrastructure and new fields, because that meant to me the admin didn't sound out oil companies in advance - when that's the only real thing you'd get interested in down there. You move in a fleet without the troop ships, and haven't sounded out the oil companies on the QT?

Politicos reports that there have been discussions with the oil companies about a quid pro quo in Venezuela for a couple of weeks - that the oil companies would have an opportunity to get compensation for their seized assets, but they'd have to be willing to rebuild the oil industry there:

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/trump-ven...

Obviously they didn't tip their hand about the military operation, and probably framed this as simply discussing a possible contingency. But apparently they've been sounding them out on this, and per Politico mostly being told that there were far too many unknowns for the oil companies to really know whether they'd do it or not, including some of the unknowns you mention.

Trump expects the oil companies to invest and then get paid back. Are we gonna guarantee that payback? How will that work?

Remember the run-up to the invasion of Iraq? Talking heads on bubblevision were saying "the US oil companies will go in there, develop the resources, flood the market with oil, and the price will fall to $10./barrel" Remember what actually happened? Constant media chatter about "peak oil", WTI at $100/bbl and $4 gas, with soaring oil company profits.

I'm hearing the same nonsense right now. This evening's "news". One pundit declaring "oil will drop $2 barrel Monday". Tom Costello said words to the effect "it may not happen right away, but, in a few years, we will see lower gas prices".

Exact same talking points we heard 20 years ago. BAH!

All God Trump has to do is stop oil production in Venezuela to tighten supplies, and prices go up. Then, "in support of demonstrators in Iran" bomb the daylights out of Kharg Island, and another 2MBPD vanish from the global market. US big oil doesn't need to risk a nickel. Trump disrupting global supply fattens their wallets, without them coming in off the golf course for a moment. Back in the day, this was "Rant #1".

Steve

If the next POTUS is a Dem, and the ICC has issued a warrant for the Felon,

Trump is "President for life", no matter how long that may be. Get used to it.

Steve

I'm not even sure if this administration realizes that this could disrupt oil for China (which it could...so that's one positive). I doubt anyone is thinking that far ahead.

That's not what matters. China is Venezuela's largest customers, but that oil only accounts for 4% of their total crude imports. So it's probably a trivial impact.

Where it does matter isn't China. It's Cuba.

China won't even notice an interruption in Venezuelan oil imports. Cuba might collapse without Venezuelan oil. They're barely keeping the lights on there these days anyway. If this action cuts off Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, it could cause the country to completely disintegrate.

And you can abso-fucking-lutely bet that Marco Rubio is thinking that far ahead. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if disrupting Cuba is what Rubio sees as the most important consequence of the operation, whatever Trump's vision of rebuilt oil fields might be.

But again, if Rodriguez just simply steps in as Maduro's successor and runs the country going forward, it's hard to see how anything in the oil sector (or any other aspect of Venezuelan policy) really changes. Most of these things weren't personal to Maduro. I mean, he's a horrible guy and deserves everything that might be coming to him, but taking him out of the equation isn't likely to change very much if the government stays in power.

I genuinely can't figure out what even the short-term strategy is....

That’s odd, considering how Trump is known for anticipating all of the repercussions of his actions before making any move.

And you can abso-fucking-lutely bet that Marco Rubio is thinking that far ahead.

Rubio said so in the presser. Cuba is the next target. But where is the personal profit for Trump in Cuba? If he doesn't see enough profit to be interesting, Rubio can bleat all he wants, he isn't getting his Bay Of Pigs II.

Steve

That’s odd, considering how Trump is known for anticipating all of the repercussions of his actions before making any move.

LOL.

You forgot.../s

I guess it was unnecessary.

Rubio said so in the presser. Cuba is the next target. But where is the personal profit for Trump in Cuba? If he doesn't see enough profit to be interesting, Rubio can bleat all he wants, he isn't getting his Bay Of Pigs II.

The rumor among los exilios (or at least my mother-in-law's rather sprawling collection of viejitas) is that he might be interested in Cuba's tourist potential for more Trump hotels.

But I wasn't really talking about that. Or any "next" action. That sort of thing is intensely speculative. Rather, I think that Rubio is acutely aware that Cuba needs Venezuela's oil to survive - and so this action may be enough to bring the Cuban government to the point of collapse, if the U.S. can get control over PdVSA. Venezuela provides the lion's share of Cuba's oil imports - which combined with Russia sanctions making a lot of Russian oil inaccessible, have been inadequate for Cuba's needs for a while now. Just increased pressure on Venezuela's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers was making Cuba nervous last month. If Rubio can get the PdVSA spigot closed off for Cuba, it could be game over for the government there.

And again - Rubio is absolutely aware of that dynamic, and I would not be surprised if that was very top of mind for him during this whole operation.

ME: Good article.

“In preparation for regime change, there had been engagement. But it’s been sporadic and relatively flatly received by the industry,” this person said. “It feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.”

ME: We blew up the first boat on Sept 2, the article is Jan 3. It says we've been having talks with the oil companies for the past weeks - that's December. We went 3 months without really engaging them - Sep, Oct, Nov - then talks. That's why it seems and feels this way. Shoot-ready-aim.

"A central concern for U.S. industry executives is whether the administration can guarantee the safety of the employees and equipment that companies would need to send to Venezuela, how the companies would be paid, whether oil prices will rise enough to make Venezuelan crude profitable and the status of Venezuela’s membership in the OPEC oil exporters cartel. U.S. benchmark oil prices were at $57 a barrel, the lowest since the end of the pandemic, as of the market’s close on Friday."

ME: $57 a barrel is low, so it's a long term investment that will pay back nicely if the price of oil goes up. But this will not be a stable situation for at least a couple of decades even if we do things right.


“Will the U.S. be able to attract U.S. oilfield services to go to Venezuela?” the executive asked. “Maybe. It would have to involve the services companies being able to contract directly with the U.S. government.”

ME: This means if things go bad, we pay. It's Latin America - so we'll likely pay.

“If you were to see a disorderly transition, obviously I think that would make it very challenging for American companies to enter Venezuela,” said Filipetti, who is now executive director of nonpartisan foreign policy group The Vandenberg Coalition. “It’s not just about getting rid of Maduro. It’s also about making sure that the legitimate opposition comes into power. ”

ME: We are likely to have a disorderly transition, so the Fed will have to contract and guarantee payment. Trump doesn't seem imterested in a legitimate government, maybe Rubio will be.

“Venezuela would be a crown jewel if the above-ground risk is removed. I have companies saying let’s see where this lands,” said Derentz, who served in Trump’s National Security Council during his first term. “I don’t see anything that gives me the sense that this is a ripe opportunity.”

ME: You can't really remove the above ground risk without committing a lot militarily, and we don't want to do that. This is a risky, hastily-put-together, unorganized, and a potentially costly play. Iran, China, etc, can fund guerilla warfare on the cheap. But we could get lucky.

So - what's the plan for who's going to be in charge of Venezuela for the next few days and weeks?

I suspect you already know the answer to that question.

There is no effin’ plan.

In a story we’ve seen many times before, decapitation of a country leaves a power vacuum, and there will be lots of people willing to try to fill that void. Opposition parties. Officials from the party in power (such as Vice Presidents). Military leaders. Outsiders. It will be a chaotic free for all in Venezuela.

I know, I know. Various people in DC will stand behind various podiums and talk about a plan. But they’re all talking about concepts or ideas that could be a plan but they aren’t yet actionable plans.

The only plan here is for Trump to flex his power and appear strong to his base.

—Peter

And again - Rubio is absolutely aware of that dynamic, and I would not be surprised if that was very top of mind for him during this whole operation.

Yes, Cuba collapsing is right up front, but how does that work out? How are we going to handle that collapse to ensure no autocratic government, or at least a benign autocratic government? We could end up with too many irons in the fire, we've done that in the past. But if we can come to some type of good arrangement we could lift sanctions and spur their economies. Haven't heard anything from my Cuban friends here yet. I'm a little occupied at the moment.

You're missing the point.

The end game is China. Not hotels, not oil companies. Not tourist spots or whatever other conspiracy theory du jour there is out there.

China.

China has always been the point. Clearing them out of the western hemisphere and denying them spheres of influence over here is a vital task.

There were ~11,000 Chinese nationals in Venezuela in 2011. Now there's over 600,000. The Venezuelan GDP is about $80 Billion. They're into the Belt and Road for some $60 billion. The Chinese want to own Venezuela. Effectively they more or less do.

China wants a stable oil supply, they want a base of operations in the western hemisphere and they want a partner to give the US fits in its own back yard. Venezuela checks all 3 boxes.

Removing Maduro is a step in the right direction. Decapitating one of the world's largest producers of illicit drugs (FARC) is a step in the right direction. Getting rid of some of Maduro's henchmen is a step in the right direction. Smashing up the $6B of Russian defense equipment (including some of their air defense toys) is a step in the right direction.

What's her face now has a choice. Maduro's government is still intact, albeit toothless.

She can keep the same crapola going. If she does, good luck with that. In the span of about 6 hours the US went in there, neutered her military and walked into her former boss' house and dragged his a$$ out of there in his PJ's. As I said on this board it was beyond obvious we had people running around down there - as evidenced by the beyond excellent intel we were getting on their drug boats.

She can keep it up...only now, no more Russian air defense. The Venezuelan people have renewed confidence. Her grip on power is tenuous at best. She knows the CIA knows everything she does and she further knows that she probably has skeletons in her closet that might wind up in a DOJ charging document and she further knows that if Trump decides to charge her and drag her a$$ out of her house in her PJs that there's exactly ZERO she can do about it.

What to do? She further knows that some of the regime loyalists are going to start looking for the exits as in they're going to want to make a deal with Machado's faction. She knows that her cops and army now fresh from the receiving end of US firepower aren't going to be super enthusiastic about fighting to keep her in power either.

So. Phone calls will be made to her from Washington. Those phone calls will have offers for her. Offers to agree to holding fair elections in a couple of months in exchange for maybe those charging docs to not come out. Maybe even give her some seed money for her new life in Havana, Moscow or Beijing.

Therefore, we'll see.

Offers to agree to holding fair elections in a couple of months in exchange for

You wanna lay odds on Trump calling for Venezuelan elections?

You wanna lay odds on Trump calling for Venezuelan elections?

As opposed to what? Them agreeing to rename Venezuela "Trumplandia"?

You wanna lay odds on Trump calling for Venezuelan elections?

As opposed to what?

As opposed to nothing. It’s a simple bet. Do you think Trump will call for free and fair elections in Venezuela?

ME: $57 a barrel is low, so it's a long term investment that will pay back nicely if the price of oil goes up.

Why would the price of oil go up, with increased supply?

Here's a chart from the St Louis Fed: Iraqi production didn't recover to it's level before Bush started his sabre rattling for 10 years. Ten years from now, Trump, and the current big oil CEO's will have made their Billions off of the tightened supplies caused by taking over Venezuela.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRQNGDPMOMBD

Steve

>>You wanna lay odds on Trump calling for Venezuelan elections?<<

As opposed to what? Them agreeing to rename Venezuela "Trumplandia"?

Trump has already said there aren't going to be any elections. He and his cronies are going to run it, to maximize their personal profits.

You might like to review the new laws that the "Coalition Provisional Authority" imposed on Iraq, for the profit of US corporations. I recall one, off the top of my head, about grain seed. For centuries, Iraqi farmers had saved a bit of each year's crop, to use to seed the next year's crop. The CPA gave the farmers Monsanto, patented, seed. It was a patent infringement to use part of the year's crop, as seed for the next year. So, every year, Iraqi farmers who had been suckered into discarding their heritage seed, had to pay their tithe to Monsanto, for seed.

ah, the net is a wonderful thing.

November 24, 2004

Law May Bar Iraqi Farmers From Replanting Seeds

The U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq laid down a host of laws covering everything from stock markets to the ownership of new kinds of agricultural crops. An order on agricultural plant varities has provoked protests from activist groups. The law may prohibit farmers from replanting seeds from their own harvest, and it's more restrictive than American laws. Dan Charles reports.

https://www.npr.org/2004/11/24/4185354/law-may-bar...

Steve

Trump has already said there aren't going to be any elections. He and his cronies are going to run it, to maximize their personal profits.

Trump dismissing the fool he used, now that her usefulness has ended.

Trump rules out Venezuela's opposition leader Machado taking power

“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” Trump said, adding that he thought she was a “very nice woman” when addressing the potential for her to take power.

Machado heads the Vente Venezuela party and overwhelmingly won a 2023 presidential primary, but the country’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice blocked her from running for president directly.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-rules-o...

There is only one vote that counts in Venezuela, Trump's

Steve...hallowed be the Trump

As opposed to nothing. It’s a simple bet. Do you think Trump will call for free and fair elections in Venezuela?


What do you think he'll do? (Yes, he'll call for elections in a bit)

What do you think he'll do? (Yes, he'll call for elections in a bit)

Define "a bit"

Maduro arrives in New York as Trump says U.S. will govern Venezuela until there's a 'proper transition'

“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition” to new leadership, Trump said at a news conference in Florida. He didn’t provide more detail about how the U.S. would control Venezuela, saying a group of officials would be named to oversee it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/going-run-coun...

If Trump has some sort of local front man/woman, maybe someone Venezuelans had actually voted for, some might accept it. But a straight up takeover by gringos?

The local Caracas resident that was interviewed on the PBS evening news, mentioned the paramilitary gangs on motorcycles that are Maduro's enforcers.

Venezuela: Who are the colectivos?

Government opponents fear the armed groups more than police, but for Maduro, the colectivos are likened to ‘angels of socialism’.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2019/5/9/venezu...

There is the core of a well armed, and organized, insurgency, waiting for Trump to be stupid enough to send our guys in, on the ground.

Of course, in Trump's eyes, our troops are just more expendable Proles, so what does he care?

Steve

It will be an interesting** test of Congress' backbone. If he tries to put boots on the ground, will the grow one? Hopefully we won't have to find out.

Didn't know about Cuba. I'm sure the Felon is oblivious, even if Rubio isn't. Maybe it's just serendipity for Rubio.


**"Interesting" as in "may you live in interesting times".

What do you think he'll do?

I think, based on what he’s said in the last 24 hours, that elections are not on the agenda.

(Yes, he'll call for elections in a bit)

“In a bit” is the answer given by many teenaged boys when their girlfriends ask them when they’re going to pull out.

You wanna lay odds on Trump calling for Venezuelan elections?

As opposed to what? Them agreeing to rename Venezuela "Trumplandia"?

Dodging the point again.

“In a bit” is the answer given by many teenaged boys when their girlfriends ask them when they’re going to pull out.

As noted before, I have a long history of bosses who would ask me to cut my throat, for their benefit, now, with a promise they would "take good care" of me, later. Of course, when "later" came, they always had an excuse for not fulfilling their promise, but, now, they want me to cut my throat, for them, again, for promises of great things for me, later.

His nibs is a "JC", with a track record of lying. I don't give any credit at all, to his promises of doing great things for people later, if they give him what he wants now.

Trump is probably playing Rubio too, letting him think he will see his Bay Of Pigs II, if he's a good lap dog now.

Steve

Decapitating one of the world's largest producers of illicit drugs (FARC) is a step in the right direction. Getting rid of some of Maduro's henchmen is a step in the right direction. Smashing up the $6B of Russian defense equipment (including some of their air defense toys) is a step in the right direction.

What's her face now has a choice. Maduro's government is still intact, albeit toothless.

How is it any more toothless than it was two days ago? Maduro's gone, to be sure - but the regime is still in control of the country. If anything, Trump's rejection of Machado has gutted the only political opposition to the Maduro regime. He's de facto supported the military getting to choose who runs the country, whether it's Rodriguez or not. He's framed the entire operation as not regime change, but just getting to Maduro personally. FARC has not been decapitated, because Maduro wasn't the head of FARC. Killing a few random Venezuelan soldiers isn't going to have any material effect, either.

The belief appears to be that Rodriguez will be a more pliant partner for Washington than Maduro was. Which is extremely unlikely, because (again) none of the underlying political factions or forces or influences in Venezuela have been changed by this operation. Rodriguez can't move much closer to Washington, because she'll lose the support of the military and Chavez' political/militia machine if she does.

So there's no particular reason to expect that Venezuela's policies towards China are going to change in any way that's big enough to matter in the slightest (which is why you use the circumlocution "step in the right direction"). They're not going to start expelling Chinese nationals or rejecting Chinese investment simply because Maduro has been replaced by Rodriguez. Theoretically this might give an opening to Washington to move closer to Caracas - actually changing some of the geopolitical dynamics and allowing DC to begin replacing Beijing as an investment partner in Venezuela. But that's also pretty unlikely, because it runs contrary to Trump's "America First" foreign policy that rejects US government economic support for other countries the way China is more than willing to do it.

Trump seems to believe that jawboning the oil companies will be an adequate replacement for coordinated government investment in Venezuela, but that's also very unlikely to pan out as long as there's still a Chavista government in Caracas. That's a multi-year, multi-billion investment - and merely replacing Maduro with a close ally, with no other political or structural changes in the country, is unlikely to induce companies to rush in.

How is it any more toothless than it was two days ago?

You’re kidding, right?

I think what we're seeing is a lack of preparation ahead of time - looks like we're winging it. Crossing my fingers and hoping for the best. - Lambo

-----------------------------

I think the future is pretty bleak. It is a humongous leap from "Maduro is out" to "we will run the country until ...?".

Maduro is gone but every other Maduro civil servant remains. The US has no command and control over the existing bureaucracy or the military, most of which is fraught with corruption up and down the line. The gangs still roam the countryside intimidating local populations as they ply their trade. How in the hell can Trump have a realistic chance of stopping most of this corruption and crime, short of occupation. How to establish enough order to actually reconstruct infrastructure is only part of the problem. How do you establish enough confidence in long term stability for outside investors to commit the necessary billions to the country?

I fear the near term effect will be added violence as the various cartels vie for the spoils now that the "order" maintained by Maduro is gone. Sad times ahead. FWIW, most of the world seems to be celebrating that Maduro is out not yet facing the now what conundrum.

How is it any more toothless than it was two days ago?

You’re kidding, right?

Not at all. The entire power structure of the regime is still in place. Maduro isn't Chavez - he wasn't the one who built the "Bolivarian Revolution" or the authoritarian-military regime that currently governs Venezuela. He was the successor - he slotted in when Chavez died. The country wasn't held in place by his personal magnetism. He's been the continuity guy. Just like all our Cuban friends' hopes of change and freedom were dashed when the Castros' deaths didn't lead any material change in government policy or structure, there's no reason to think that removing Maduro will have any impact at all.

Because apart from Maduro no longer occupying the Presidency, nothing about Venezuela has changed. The government is still the same, all the macro political and economic factors that shaped the country haven't changed, and the system of electoral democracy is still broken such that the military is basically in charge. We're clearly not going to try to change that. We're not going to be moving to elections, we're not going to try to replace the current regime with the opposition (so sorry Machado), and we're not even going to try to disturb who succeeds Maduro. We're just going to hope that Rodriguez (if she's the one) will be more willing to cozy up to America than Maduro was. Which is just....absurd, given that we've literally just abducted their head of state in a fundamental invasion of their national sovereignty, which will make it all-but-impossible for the new head of state to foster a cooperative relationship with Washington without losing all their domestic political credibility.

So Venezuela is no more toothless today than it was two days ago. The military is still in control of the country - and it never posed any real threat to the U.S. to begin with. All of the factors which kept the Venezuelan economy locked in poverty remain in place, especially the government's reliance on current oil sector revenues to keep the budget from collapsing (which is the main reason why no one can invest in the industry there). All of the factors that kept Venezuela hostile to the U.S. are still in place - the government is still just as "Bolivarian" as it was, and they've now got this added humiliation and hostile act to foster their anti-Yanqui sentiment.

Why do you think anything's materially different than it was a few days ago? What do you think has changed?

So Venezuela is no more toothless today than it was two days ago.

Erm, okay. I outlined why this isn't true in my other post.

Erm, okay. I outlined why this isn't true in my other post.

And I outlined in my other post why you were wrong. FARC hasn't been decapitated, because Maduro wasn't the head of FARC. Killing a few random Venezuelan soldiers is trivial, and doesn't materially affect anything in the country - no one of any importance whatsoever was killed in the raid. Which is why you had to characterize these things as a "step in the right direction," because they're of such small magnitude that they're utterly irrelevant to anything that's actually going on down there. There's been absolutely no change in the fundamental power structure of the country, no removal of anyone other than Maduro from power, and so there's no reason at this point to expect any change in Venezuela's political or economic policies or their capabilities.

Nothing has changed, apart from Maduro being removed - and Maduro's removal isn't going to change much, since the entire military and political structure remains in place. Granted, it's entirely possible that Venezuela's government might have trouble holding onto power given that disruption, and perhaps the country descends into civil war....but that's certainly not our goal, and it probably doesn't help us. This strategy seems to be predicated on the idea that Venezuela's antipathy to the U.S. solely stemmed from Maduro personally, and not the fact that the entire government and military regime was based on the Bolivarian revolution and resistance to U.S. imperialism as a fundamental pillar of their support.

And I outlined in my other post why you were wrong. FARC hasn't been decapitated, because Maduro wasn't the head of FARC.

No offense, but you're miles off base, and defeat your own argument right here
Granted, it's entirely possible that Venezuela's government might have trouble holding onto power given that disruption, ...which was my point from earlier. Thanks for restating it.

The US has shown that no amount of Russkie technology or Chinese advisors can keep it from doing whatever it wants inside Venezuela. We've also shown that we know more about Venezuela than Maduro's government does. I told this board - and was proven 100% correct - that we had fantastic intel on the ground inside the country. That hasn't changed and won't.

You think some security puke or General someplace is going to obey orders to shoot some protestors without thinking through what might come next for him? You think the population is going to sit still and let the regime round up more political prisoners?

How do you know the CIA isn't talking to opposition leaders and giving them advice?

You don't.

You're also dismissing the psychological effect of seeing your entire military shown to be useless. As is your right. I'll merely say that I disagree with you and leave it at that. Time will tell.

And by the by: Joe Biden put a $25 million bounty on Maduro and accused him of drug trafficking:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/world/americas/...

The Biden administration said on Friday that it was offering $25 million for information leading to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, after he assumed a third term in office despite evidence suggesting that he lost Venezuela’s recent election.
The announcement was a retaliatory measure by Washington, which does not recognize Mr. Maduro as the rightful president of Venezuela. Mr. Maduro has presented no evidence that he won a July election, while his opponent Edmundo González has presented thousands of publicly available vote tallies that he says indicate he easily won the most votes.
The United States has said that Mr. González is the president-elect of Venezuela and has urged Mr. Maduro to step aside.

This IIRC was after sending Kerry to talk to him about climate change, lol!

And by the by: Joe Biden put a $25 million bounty on Maduro and accused him of drug trafficking:

And Obama and Hillary stoked the civil war in Libya.

No matter who we vote for, regardless of party, we get NeoCons.

Steve

The US has shown that no amount of Russkie technology or Chinese advisors can keep it from doing whatever it wants inside Venezuela. We've also shown that we know more about Venezuela than Maduro's government does. I told this board - and was proven 100% correct - that we had fantastic intel on the ground inside the country. That hasn't changed and won't.

Right. Which is what I said. Nothing's changed. We don't have any different capabilities inside of Venezuela than we did two days ago. It's highly unlikely that anyone in the military thought any different about our capabilities in-country. They probably have upgraded their assessment of our intelligence capabilities, but that's unlikely to materially affect their policy choices - which are driven by much larger macro forces than whether we have really advanced ability to spy on them.

You think some security puke or General someplace is going to obey orders to shoot some protestors without thinking through what might come next for him? You think the population is going to sit still and let the regime round up more political prisoners?

Absolutely. Why would that change? They're still in charge of the country. If they lose power, they end up against the wall - so they're going to do what they need to do in order to maintain power over the country. If that means not listening to what Marco Rubio tells them to do (and it certainly does), then they're not going to listen to what Marco Rubio tells them to do. Venezuela has always been weaker than the U.S. - but countries that are weaker than the U.S. still don't obey the U.S., even though we have the power to hurt them vastly more than they could hurt us.

How do you know the CIA isn't talking to opposition leaders and giving them advice?

Because Trump has neutered the opposition. He stated that the opposition was neither consulted nor informed of the operation. He very publicly threw Machado under the bus. Rubio has confirmed that elections are something for much later down the road. Those things are completely inconsistent with this being part of an effort to overthrow the current government and replace it with the opposition party. They weaken both the legitimacy and strength of the opposition party, making it harder for them to either claim that they are today rightfully in charge of Venezuela or to call for processes that would put them in charge of Venezuela.

It's very clear from Trump's statements yesterday that the Administration was instead counting on Rodriguez to be a willing ally of Washington after she took over. But she rebuked the Administration later in the day with a fiery assertion that Venezuela wouldn't heed direction from DC. After that, Trump came back today with a not-at-all-veiled threat against her:

https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026...

...which is also unlikely to generate the hoped-for compliance with Administration orders. Right now, there are no signs that there's some 4D chess game running hidden in the background. Instead, it looks more like the Administration vastly over-estimated Rodriguez' willingness to switch teams (or that the hawks within the Administration over-sold it to Trump so he'd sign off). Candy and flowers, part deux.

I mean, it's really a stretch for the Administration to threaten a foreign leader individually with consequences "worse than Maduro's" if they don't obey Washington - even beyond what they just did. We've been out of the open assassination business for a long time. Going after Rodriguez would be well outside the Noriega-Maduro "we're just arresting him for crimes" bucket which puts a law enforcement spin on those operations.

We don't have any different capabilities inside of Venezuela than we did two days ago

Hahahahahaha! How much more do you want?

Those things are completely inconsistent with this being part of an effort to overthrow the current government and replace it with the opposition party. They weaken both the legitimacy and strength of the opposition party, making it harder for them to either claim that they are today rightfully in charge of Venezuela or to call for processes that would put them in charge of Venezuela.

This whole passage elicits a sigh. Yo people have observed Trump for a decade and learned absolutely nothing about the man.

Thought exercise. Had Trump embraced Machado, what’s the worldwide leftist reaction to her?

Administration was instead counting on Rodriguez to be a willing ally of Washington after she took over.

This is why the left gets foreign issues wrong. You guys put far too much weight into what leaders say in public. Of course she’s going to come out and pound the table. She has to put up appearances.

Don’t you think that she’s getting phone calls now? And that those phone calls are about discussing options?

Right now, there are no signs that there's some 4D chess game running hidden in the background

Because there isn’t one. The left always assumes there’s some corruption angle, builds that up in their minds, then wonders when it doesn’t appear.

The objectives in Venezuela are obvious.

Hahahahahaha! How much more do you want?

An explanation of how our capabilities have changed. Do you think we couldn't have done this operation four days ago instead of two days ago, if we had wanted to? Venezuela has never had the capability to keep us from doing what we might want to in that country. It's a weak country, compared to the U.S.

Had Trump embraced Machado, what’s the worldwide leftist reaction to her?

It would be bad no matter what - she's an anti-Chavismo who has said she wants to "bury socialism forever." She's never getting the left's support, and neither is anyone else in the opposition party. Trump didn't throw her aside because he wants to help her - he threw her aside because the plan is not to install her (or anyone else in the opposition party) into the government over the objections of the military. The plan is status quo.

Of course she’s going to come out and pound the table. She has to put up appearances.

Don’t you think that she’s getting phone calls now? And that those phone calls are about discussing options?

Sure - just like she was before Maduro was ousted. Just like Maduro was certainly getting calls before he was ousted. But she's unlikely to do what the folks on the other end of the calls are asking, just like Maduro was unlikely to do what the folks on the other end of the calls were asking. Because what the U.S. wants is not in the best interests of the governing regime, and that hasn't changed in the last few days.

Because there isn’t one. The left always assumes there’s some corruption angle, builds that up in their minds, then wonders when it doesn’t appear.

The objectives in Venezuela are obvious.

I'm not talking about a "corruption angle" - I'm talking about what your talking about. The idea that there's some more complex strategy being implemented in the background, something wholly inconsistent with the steps being taken in public. I agree there isn't any such thing. There's no complicated maneuvering to try to get an opposition leader installed who will repudiate socialism and Bolivarianism and open the door to oil companies coming in. The steps that the Administration has taken in public are really damaging to the opposition - they're delegitimizing Machado, justifying a delay in elections, and signaling that the U.S. is planning to work with the military rather than any opposition leaders who might be willing to take shot at regime change (which makes it all but impossible for them to actually organize and garner support).

I agree that the objectives in Venezuela are obvious - what I'm pointing out is that removing Maduro doesn't do anything to advance those objectives if we leave every other part of his government in place. Which appears to be the plan. So we've done all this for very little outcome. Which only makes sense if the Administration had mistakenly thought (or was just willing to roll the dice) that Rodriguez was genuinely willing to switch teams if she got the job, rather than perhaps just playing Good Cop to Maduro's Bad Cop in diplomacy with the U.S.

We'll see what happens going forward, but it sure looks like the Administration is just going to let Rodriguez consolidate her role and allow the Maduro government to continue more-or-less unchanged except at President. Which will accomplish virtually nothing towards achieving our objectives in Venezuela, and arguably will make matters worse.

I agree that the objectives in Venezuela are obvious

And what do you think those objectives are?

And what do you think those objectives are?

To have Venezuela change their policies with respect to the oil industry, relations with other nations (particularly China, Cuba, and Russia), and drug interdiction in order to align with United States interests.

So back to you - can you explain how removing Maduro, but not making any other changes to the government in Venezuela, actually accomplishes any of those objectives?

To have Venezuela change their policies with respect to the oil industry, relations with other nations (particularly China, Cuba, and Russia), and drug interdiction in order to align with United States interests.

Partial credit. Most of these are secondary. The primary objective is to reduce or eliminate China’s presence in the western hemisphere.

Now. What kind of government is required in Caracas to make that happen?

So back to you - can you explain how removing Maduro, but not making any other changes to the government in Venezuela, actually accomplishes any of those objectives?

Removing Maduro is the obvious first step. A head was needed and since he’s little more than an idiot bus driver then his head was the appropriate catalyst.

You appear to believe that we’re operating under the neocon playbook of Bush43 circa 2004 where we are going to idealistically promote democracy everywhere. We’re not.

The goal is China. That’s it. That’s the 4D chess: shove th Chinese into their own regional box.

Fortunately the Venezuelan population is sick of the Chavistas and wants a return to basic human rights. I expect them to sort it out one way or the other.

Where it does matter isn't China. It's Cuba.
China won't even notice an interruption in Venezuelan oil imports. Cuba might collapse without Venezuelan oil.

Do you have any idea as to what kind of support Cuba still get from Russia.... and if any such support has stayed constant during Russian's incursion into Ukraine?

Probably more ramifications to a halt in VZ oil production than we realize. Certainly the orange felon hasn't been forthcoming with any strategery. .

"Cuba is the next target. But where is the personal profit for Trump in Cuba?"

All necessary information can be fund by watching Southpark and The Godfather.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdvjRI25how

The primary objective is to reduce or eliminate China’s presence in the western hemisphere.

Now. What kind of government is required in Caracas to make that happen?

A different one than exists today. Not the same government as last week, with just a different person serving as President. A different government. Because with the current regime, it is to their advantage to have a strong relationship with China and an adversarial posture towards the United States. Nothing that happened with Maduro really changes that, and it actually strengthens some of the factors pushing Venezuela towards China. The U.S. is still a very hostile adversary to Venezuela and the government remains committed to its perverse Bolivarian socialism, which are the things that have kept them firmly in the China-Russia-Cuba camp for the last two decades.

Removing Maduro is the obvious first step.

But it doesn't accomplish anything. If I walk out my front door, it's the "first step" on a trip to New York - but walking down to my sidewalk doesn't materially get me any closer to being in New York.

Again, the only way this makes sense - or advances our objectives in any material way - is if Rodriguez were to switch sides and move closer towards the U.S. and away from China. From Trump's and Rubio's statements yesterday, discussing the U.S. "running" Venezuela, the most likely explanation is that the Administration had very high expectations that Rodriguez would in fact be willing to do that. They've walked that back, which leaves us no closer to achieving any of our objectives than we were a few days ago.

The goal is China. That’s it. That’s the 4D chess: shove the Chinese into their own regional box.

But this doesn't do that. It doesn't get us anywhere closer to that. If we were actually going to run things in Venezuela, we could take steps to reduce Chinese influence there. But apparently Trump was wrong, and we're not going to be running things there. So all we've done is remove a particular individual from the Presidency, without making any other material changes in the country - in all likelihood strengthening the regime's narrative of being persecuted by the U.S. and weakening the opposition movement by publicly undercutting their leadership as weak and ineffective and not worth our support.

A different one than exists today. Not the same government as last week, with just a different person serving as President. A different government. Because with the current regime, it is to their advantage to have a strong relationship with China and an adversarial posture towards the United States.

100% wrong. Know what dictators like more than anything? Being dictators. As in, keeping their heads affixed to their shoulders and/or not worrying about bending down for the soap in a US prison.

You seem to want to insist on ignoring what just happened down there - we swatted aside their entire security apparatus and did what we wanted. How’s China going to stop that?

They've walked that back, which leaves us no closer to achieving any of our objectives than we were a few days ago.

I love the dichotomy of “everything Trump does makes us infinitely worse the second he does it” coupled with this expectation of the Most Perfect Outcome the second Trump does the very same thing that was doomed to failure. Talk about having it both ways!

These things take time. Recall that Maduro was in contact with US officials for some time about his exit plan. Welp, he refused, and so his “exit plan” was a 1-way ticket to Riker’s Island.

Now his veep is the Next Contestant on Let’s Make a Deal. Neither one of us knows what dirt we have on her but I think it’s very likely the answer is nonzero.

She has options.

But this doesn't do that

By itself? No. But it’s step 1.

If we followed tue left wing playbook in 10 years China would have a full naval base and would own most of the place. Glad we’re not on that trajectory anymore.

And if you push back on that notion I’d humbly suggest you go look at a map. Geography matters and we’re in a race with them of sorts.

Do you have any idea as to what kind of support Cuba still get from Russia.... and if any such support has stayed constant during Russian's incursion into Ukraine?

Very little. Russian exports to Cuba collapsed with the sanctions imposed because of their Ukrainian venture, falling from some 600,000 tonnes before the war to about 100,000 tonnes in 2024. That's what led to the major energy crises and blackouts Cuba has been facing in the last 18 months. When Venezuela and Mexico were able to fill in that gap, Cuba was able to limp along - but any interruption from Mexico (due to supply constraints) or Venezuela (due to sanctions/interdictions) was catastrophic.

Oh, and here’s another part of the plan plus some tidbits from Rubio:

Well, I've explained, once again, I'll do it one more time. What we are running, is the direction this is going to move moving forward. And that is, we have leverage. This leverage we are using, and we intend to use it. We started using (it) already. You can see where they are running out of storage capacity. In a few weeks, they're going to have to start pumping oil unless they make changes. And that leverage we have with the armada of boats that are currently positioned allow us to seize any sanctioned boats coming into or out of Venezuela, loaded with oil or on its way in to pick up oil, and we can pick and choose which ones we go after. We have court orders for each one.

That's a multi-year, multi-billion investment - and merely replacing Maduro with a close ally, with no other political or structural changes in the country, is unlikely to induce companies to rush in.

Consider: China has put more than $100B into Venezuela over the past 15-20 years, and it will take much more than that to bring their economy back from the morgue - and in any event you can ‘t snap your fingers and have it happen. It takes time to rebuild an economy from the ground up (ask FDR, for instance. Or Grant, Hayes, Arthur, and Garfield following The Long Depression of 1873).

Now you’re on the BoD of, say, Exxon. Are you going to plow $20 billion into an unstable area without some kind of assurance that you can get your money back out? Haven’t we seen this movie in Venezuela before?

And by the way, who has the hundreds of billions in cash handy, ready to plunk down on this wild bet? Apple does, seems unlikely. Berkshire does, and while they like “energy” they also don’t like risk, so again, seems unlikely. Put all the cash from all the oil companies together, still seems unlikely without a US military presence there to keep calm and carrying on. (By frame of reference, we kept a military presence in Panama for 80 years after we build the canal.)

Oh, hey. Big runs on grocery stores in Venezuela today. How long before Peace breaks out and the campfires run hot with Kim-ba-ya gatherings? Wake me when that happens.

Consider: China has put more than $100B into Venezuela over the past 15-20 years,

What happens when a legitimately Chinese flagged tanker tries to cross the blockade? iirc, the second one Shinyland seized was a legit, non-sanctioned tanker. The US grabbed it, claiming it carried contraband oil. If the US backs off, then Venezuela is pushed closer to the Chinese. If the US entertains fantasies of reenacting the blockade of Cuba during the missile crises, when Russian ships turned around, things could get very hot around Taiwan and the Philippines.

Steve

Oh, and here’s another part of the plan plus some tidbits from Rubio:

Which, again, is nothing that we weren't already doing - or couldn't do - with Maduro as the president of Venezuela. We've always been able to run a blockade of Venezuela, if we wanted to. Didn't need to replace Rodriguez with Maduro to do that. Still not sure how taking out Maduro is going to allow us to "run" Venezuela in a way that we couldn't previously....

The goal is China. That’s it. That’s the 4D chess: shove the Chinese into their own regional box.

4D chess my ass.

You are delusional whenever you try to imagine that Trump and his corrupt sycophantic administration is acting intelligently and in the best interests of the US.

And your idea that each powerful nation gets its 'regional box' is very dangerous and destabilizing.

Sounds like the 'hegemony' that Hitler and Mussolini tried to convince the US to go along with.

Didn't need to replace Rodriguez with Maduro to do that. Still not sure how taking out Maduro is going to allow us to "run" Venezuela in a way that we couldn't previously....


Guess we’ll see how big of a patriot the VP is for Venezuela.

Sounds like the 'hegemony' that Hitler and Mussolini tried to convince the US to go along with.

Or, the "Project For A New American Century": imposing USian hegemony at bayonet point. The Wiki article on PNAC notes the group dissolved around 2006. Why would the group dissolve? Probably, because they have won.

Steve

Guess we’ll see how big of a patriot the VP is for Venezuela.

What do you mean? Trump and Rubio are insisting that Venezuela has to start doing what's in the best interest of the United States. That they have to do things that our country finds beneficial, that help our citizens.

Knuckling under to the demands of a foreign power is not normally regarded as an act of patriotism. Usually, fortitude and defiance in the face of foreign belligerence is the hallmark of the patriot - not compliance and acquiescence. So I don't think that Rodriguez is all that likely to let Washington "run the direction" of their national policy, or gain control of their oil resources - nor that many Venezuelans would regard her a "patriot" if she did....

What do you mean? Trump and Rubio are insisting that Venezuela has to start doing what's in the best interest of the United States.

So you think oppressing their own people, operating as a giant drug cartel and smuggling oil/laundering money for the likes of Iran/China/Cuba/Russia is in Venezuela’s best interest?

That’s an interesting take.

So I don't think that Rodriguez is all that likely to let Washington "run the direction" of their national policy, or gain control of their oil resources - nor that many Venezuelans would regard her a "patriot" if she did....

Double lol. Those ghost fleet ships are all illegal under maritime law. She doesn’t get a vote on what direction we run or not.

Trump just said they talked to Rodriguez.

You’re also ignoring what the vast majority of Venezuelans think.

I’m generally not really following your point which seems to be to just play the pessimist and claim there’s nothing we can about anything.

And double lol. Lindsay Graham just said that India is telling him “please tell President Trump we’re buying less Russian oil!!!”

Economic pressure works.

So you think oppressing their own people, operating as a giant drug cartel and smuggling oil/laundering money for the likes of Iran/China/Cuba/Russia is in Venezuela’s best interest?

This isn't a question of whether the individual things that Venezuela's government does or doesn't do is in the best interests of Venezuela, but whether allowing a foreign power to make those decisions for Venezuela is in their best interests. And the answer to that higher-level question is almost certainly "no."

As for the above policies, it's not in Venezuela's best interests to oppress their own people - but the demands on the other end of that phone call aren't about stopping that oppression or requiring the country to abide by elections (else Machado, not Rodriguez, would be taking the call). As for smuggling oil, that could very well be in Venezuela's best interests - it's economically valuable for them, and just like America First doesn't abide subordinating the needs of Americans to any global rules-based system, it's no shock that "Venezuela First" might take the same approach.

And Venezuela isn't really operating as a giant drug cartel - it's mostly a trans-shipment country, with the real cartels being in Colombia and Mexico. Venezuela has decided not to undertake the massive expense (in money and blood) necessary to clamp down on the illegal trafficking - and that might very well be in the best interests of Venezuela, who is under no obligation (unless they assume it) to help the U.S. solve the drug problem that stems from our demand. Since we also are unwilling to undertake the massive expense (in money and blood) that would be necessary to clamp down on our illegal demand, or the illegal drug activity that takes place within our borders - because we have other priorities.

This isn't a question of whether the individual things that Venezuela's government does or doesn't do is in the best interests of Venezuela, but whether allowing a foreign power to make those decisions for Venezuela is in their best interests. And the answer to that higher-level question is almost certainly "no."

Uh huh. BRI countries have China call the shots and Venezuela was effectively a drug cartel.

I'm just fascinated by the democrats. They're literally the only ones on the planet bent out of shape by this.

You keep mentioning "rules" and "laws" but...the folks breaking all the "rules" and "laws" are the Chinese/Russians/Venezuelans and the guy enforcing the "laws" is...Trump. Fascinating.

As for the above policies, it's not in Venezuela's best interests to oppress their own people - but the demands on the other end of that phone call aren't about stopping that oppression or requiring the country to abide by elections (else Machado, not Rodriguez, would be taking the call).

Incorrect. The calls are about pressuring their government to allow fair elections and knock things off.

As for smuggling oil, that could very well be in Venezuela's best interests - it's economically valuable for them, and just like America First doesn't abide subordinating the needs of Americans to any global rules-based system, it's no shock that "Venezuela First" might take the same approach.

Or they could...sell oil on the open market!

And Venezuela isn't really operating as a giant drug cartel Yes it is.

Venezuela has decided not to undertake the massive expense (in money and blood) necessary to clamp down on the illegal trafficking

LOL. They're literally enabling this.

to help the U.S. solve the drug problem that stems from our demand.

So it's our fault, then.

Anyway.

Venezuela is a lynchpin: get them off the chess board and Cuba is screwed (who, by the way, was supplying a lot of muscle to Maduro. A lot of those guys are dead now.) China loses oil imports. The Russians lose their money laundering.

Iran and Hezbollah lose a base of operations and the lucrative oil and drug cash.

No...the only shocking thing here is that successive US Presidents ALLOWED all this sh1t to build up in our hemisphere for so long.

They're literally the only ones on the planet bent out of shape by this.

Lots of people are bent out of shape by this. The U.S. seized by force the head of state of another country. That's rather damaging to the rules-based system that protects territorial sovereignty - usually it's verboten to have your military go into another country's space.

But that's not really what this thread is about. Not about whether seizing Maduro was right or wrong, but whether it's likely to result in the U.S. "running" Venezuela, as Trump alluded to the other day. With the Administration's multiple rounds of backpedaling, though, it's now pretty clear we won't be "running" anything to much greater extent than we were prior to the removal of Maduro. We'll simply be using our blockade to put pressure on the Venezuelan government to do what we tell them, which isn't likely to have markedly different results without Maduro than if he had remained. We've always had naval superiority over Venezuela, and if we want to impose a full blockade on their tanker trade there's never really been anything they could do about it.

Anyway.

Venezuela is a lynchpin: get them off the chess board and Cuba is screwed (who, by the way, was supplying a lot of muscle to Maduro. A lot of those guys are dead now.) China loses oil imports. The Russians lose their money laundering.

But getting Maduro out of the country doesn't take Venezuela off the chess board. That's the point being raised in this thread. The country is still there. The military is still there, run by exactly the same personnel. The rest of the government is still there, run by exactly the same personnel (just sans Maduro). "A lot of those guys" aren't dead now - estimates are that a few dozen soldiers and household staffers were killed, because this wasn't a major military assault but rather a special ops attack. Removing Maduro doesn't cause China to lose oil imports (and Venezuela was a tiny portion of their imports anyway), and it doesn't cause Russia to lose their money laundering (because the finance ministry hasn't been changed one bit). Etc.

Lots of people are bent out of shape by this.

Okay, you're right. The Russians, Chinese, Cubans, Iranians and Hezbollah are all mad also.
Great company for the democrats to be in!

That's rather damaging to the rules-based system that protects territorial sovereignty - usually it's verboten to have your military go into another country's space.

You're aware that Maduro wasn't the lawfully elected ruler, right? And that we were executing what amounts to a really big arrest warrant, right?

But getting Maduro out of the country doesn't take Venezuela off the chess board.

I was speaking generally. Removing Venezuela does everything I said.

It'll take some time.

The military is still there, run by exactly the same personnel. Actually there are a fair bit fewer of them now and a lot of their toys are broken.

Here's another tidbit from Rubio that might help you:
Well, this is not about a legitimate president. We don't believe that this regime in place is legitimate via an election. And that's not just us. It's 60-some countries around the world that have taken that view as well, including the European Union. But we understand that there are people in Venezuela that, today, who are the ones that can actually make changes. For example, when we want to send in the migrant flights, even though we never recognized the Maduro regime as legitimate, we had to deal with the authorities that controlled the airports.

What does that tell you about the grip that Rodriguez has on her country?

Okay, you're right. The Russians, Chinese, Cubans, Iranians and Hezbollah are all mad also.
Great company for the democrats to be in!

And France, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Uruguay.

But most of Europe is also deeply upset by how the operation was conducted, even as they struggle with how to balance that with their support for the result. They're mostly trying to dodge the question:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/04/vene...

So you shouldn't go thinking that this is something everyone but the dictators support.

You're aware that Maduro wasn't the lawfully elected ruler, right? And that we were executing what amounts to a really big arrest warrant, right?

With military special forces and the support of the U.S. Navy, right? Conducted by the U.S. Defense Depar...excuse me, Department of War, right? The normal course for international law enforcement is for such matters to be handled by civilian authorities - not the use of military forces.

I was speaking generally. Removing Venezuela does everything I said.

It'll take some time.

Removing Venezuela (assuming you're speaking figuratively) would do most of that...but we haven't removed Venezuela. We've removed Maduro. Which doesn't remove Venezuela from anything.

What does that tell you about the grip that Rodriguez has on her country?

Nothing. I think you're misreading the quote. He wasn't alluding to the idea that the people who are running the airports are autonomous actors that are free from the control of the central government. He was saying that even though the U.S. didn't recognize that the Maduro government was the de jeure government of Venezuela, they were the de facto government of Venezuela - which meant that the U.S. had to deal with representatives of that government (ie. the guy at the airport) even while claiming that Maduro wasn't really the President. Because even though he wasn't really the President, he was the one who was actually being treated as the President by everyone in the country.

But most of Europe is also deeply upset by how the operation was conducted, even as they struggle with how to balance that with their support for the result.

Either laws and sanctions mean something or they don't. I seriously doubt Trump loses any sleep over it.

With military special forces and the support of the U.S. Navy, right? Conducted by the U.S. Defense Depar...excuse me, Department of War, right? The normal course for international law enforcement is for such matters to be handled by civilian authorities - not the use of military forces.

The military helps out law enforcement literally all the time. You do know that DEA agents fly around in Army helicopters in Colombia as a matter of course, right? And that the Coast Guard routinely uses Navy assets?

Removing Venezuela (assuming you're speaking figuratively) would do most of that...but we haven't removed Venezuela. We've removed Maduro. Which doesn't remove Venezuela from anything.

Time will tell. Lambo just posted an interesting thread that disproves the "Rodriguez is a Maduro hardliner" notion:
A group of senior Venezuelan government officials, led by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge, who is president of the National Assembly, have quietly promoted a series of initiatives in recent months aimed at presenting themselves to Washington as a “more acceptable” alternative to Nicolás Maduro’s regime, according to people with direct knowledge of the talks.

...now that we've demonstrated who has the upper hand in the region, are they more likely or less likely to want to make some kind of deal?

He was saying that even though the U.S. didn't recognize that the Maduro government was the de jeure government of Venezuela, they were the de facto government of Venezuela - which meant that the U.S. had to deal with representatives of that government (ie. the guy at the airport) even while claiming that Maduro wasn't really the President. Because even though he wasn't really the President, he was the one who was actually being treated as the President by everyone in the country.

No. If Maduro had any real grip on the country the guy at the airport doesn't even answer the phone and the planes don't get to land.

"So Venezuela is no more toothless today than it was two days ago. The military is still in control of the country - and it never posed any real threat to the U.S. to begin with. All of the factors which kept the Venezuelan economy locked in poverty remain in place, especially the government's reliance on current oil sector revenues to keep the budget from collapsing (which is the main reason why no one can invest in the industry there). All of the factors that kept Venezuela hostile to the U.S. are still in place - the government is still just as "Bolivarian" as it was, and they've now got this added humiliation and hostile act to foster their anti-Yanqui sentiment." - Albaby

You are making the false assumption that Trump wanted to make genuine change in Venezuela.

Instead I think it is going to be like all of those faux trade deals he did over tariffs. Unenforceable meaningless words that will make no real world difference but allow Trump to pretend he is making a difference. All it will take is for Rodriguez to make a few fawning statements in Trump's direction (that will only be for his consumption not any Venezuelan citizen), Trump will go on and on about how he is cleaning up South America, all of his ignorant followers will praise him and absolutely nothing have changed.

Not at all. The entire power structure of the regime is still in place.

The notoriously hard right Wall Street Journal editorial page has noticed. Today’s lead editorial:

As Sunday dawned in Caracas and Washington, a new reality was also apparent a day after the U.S. snatched dictator Nicolás Maduro in a daring raid (see nearby). To wit, the dictator’s cronies are still running Venezuela, and they don’t seem ready to give it up. Is President Trump willing to settle for Maduro 2.0?

Delcy Rodríguez, the former vice president, is now the acting president. Like Mr. Maduro, she’s been sanctioned by the U.S. and European Union. After Mr. Maduro’s capture Saturday, she issued defiant public remarks. She’s a hard-line socialist well known for her close ties to Cuban intelligence.

Ms. Rodríguez's brother, Jorge Rodríguez, remains in charge of the National Assembly. Also still in power is the notorious interior minister, Diosdado Cabello. He declared in Caracas that the U.S. had only partially succeeded in its mission and that the Chavista revolution will continue.

Does this worry the Trump Administration? Not that it is showing. Mr. Trump boasted Saturday that Ms. Rodríguez will do what the U.S. wants, or else. He threatened a “second wave” of military intervention if she doesn’t.

But Mr. Trump didn’t say anything about holding new elections as a U.S. goal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that elections will need to be held eventually, though he didn’t seem to think it’s all that urgent. Mr. Rubio seemed confident that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil exports will squeeze the regime enough that it will buckle to U.S. demands.

“We want drug trafficking to stop. We want no more gang members to come our way. We don’t want to see the Iranian and, by the way, Cuban presence in the past. We want the oil industry in that country not to go to the benefit of pirates and adversaries of the United States, but for the benefit of the people,” Mr. Rubio said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Those are important goals, but Mr. Rubio’s implication is that the Maduro apparat can stick around if they heed these demands. This is a risky bet, especially since the regime’s new leaders rely so much on aid from Cuba, Russia, China and Iran. It’s unlikely these people will turn into pro-American democrats.

All the more so since the U.S. military left Venezuela at the end of the Maduro operation. Mr. Rubio said Sunday it was unrealistic to take more risks in the raid to decapitate more of the regime, which is fair enough.

But despite Mr. Trump’s vow that the U.S. will “run the country,” there is no one on the ground to do so. This may mollify MAGA critics who fear he is imitating George W. Bush’s occupation of Iraq. But it reduces the U.S. ability to persuade the regime.

Much depends on whether the Maduro crowd fear a second U.S. military strike. Even more depends on whether the Trump Administration is willing to push for new elections. The U.S. needn’t back any candidate. But a democratic government of the kind that won the 2024 election, only to have it stolen by Mr. Maduro, would be a more durable ally.

The Trump Administration talks about its foreign-policy “realism.” But if Maduro 2.0 remains in defiant power in six months, its gamble on his henchmen won’t look very realistic.

It will be hard to make “a second strike” since taking out the leadership one at a time is a fool’s game. There’s an entire regime in place that would need to be replaced, which means you’d have to do the whole invasion/incursion thing, at least to some degree. Are we ready for that?

And then there’s “nation building”. I wonder how long MAGA would stand for that?

LOL, Dope, let's see how well this comment ages:

Venezuela is a lynchpin: get them off the chess board and Cuba is screwed (who, by the way, was supplying a lot of muscle to Maduro. A lot of those guys are dead now.) China loses oil imports. The Russians lose their money laundering.

I was speaking generally. Removing Venezuela does everything I said.

It'll take some time.

Like Iraq?

I wish what you believe was possible, but with Trump in charge I have no confidence in a positive outcome.

And then there’s “nation building”. I wonder how long MAGA would stand for that?

The cult can turn on a dime to follow Dear Leader. But not all Republicans are in the cult.

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