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Investment Strategies / Non-US Stocks
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Author: tedthedog 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/23/2025 5:42 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I'm sorry, I can't seem to find who posted about this company on the BRK board right now.
But I did a little digging, see below:

Protector Forsikring ASA, ticker PROT.OL (Norway property and casualty insurance)

Since 2005-05-25 using Yahoo data:

Annualized Return 0.246700
Annualized Std Dev 0.409100
Annualized Sharpe (Rf=0%) 0.603100
maxDrawdown 0.793421

Top five drawdowns using Yahoo data:

From Trough To Depth Length To Trough Recovery
1 2007-05-30 2008-10-31 2011-01-31 -0.7934 926 363 563
2 2018-01-11 2020-03-19 2021-04-15 -0.7824 814 547 267
3 2011-05-16 2011-10-13 2013-01-18 -0.2982 425 106 319
4 2014-07-24 2014-12-16 2015-01-28 -0.2613 130 104 26
5 2016-10-26 2017-03-31 2017-10-09 -0.2433 242 112 130

Summary of rolling one year returns using Yahoo data:

Min. :-0.71455
1st Qu.: 0.01166
Median : 0.35054
Mean : 0.38618
3rd Qu.: 0.64165
Max. : 3.17453

CONCLUSION:
Massive hits in 2008/2009 and 2020 according to Yahoo data, but great returns otherwise.


2020 Annual Report:
https://protectorforsikring.no/getfile.php/131661-...
If there was an explanation of their share price decline, I missed it.
On page 10 is a graph of share price, showing a drop from about 55 to 20 in the 2020 period, which isn't quite the -78% drawdown in the stats above but maybe there were some currency effects at play (data was from Yahoo). Still a massive drawdown, and I didn't see a reference to it in the AR, but might have missed it.

The website I have for annual reports only goes back to 2013, so no 2008 or 2009, but for the other reports here's the site I used for ARs
https://protectorforsikring.no/en/investor/documen...

A Yahoo data glitch? But I can't seem to pull it up in alphavantage.
FWIW, this site seems to corroborate massive share price hits:
https://companiesmarketcap.com/protector-forsikrin...

Here's some more info
https://simplywall.st/stocks/no/insurance/ob-prot/...

Maybe the OP has some insight?

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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 7:18 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I mentioned it. I wasn't a shareholder until after the second drawdown but will try to look around and comment further. I have a recollection of poor loss ratios in 2020 from what another commentator has mentioned but memory might be false.

The interesting issue for me here is that if they can reproduce their experience in the UK in France, which they have just entered this year, there is the potential for significant earnings growth in the next few years. It will take a while to ramp up and cover their start up costs of course.

Their investment approach is value orientated with around 15% of investments in equities. Long term the returns here have been good.

If I get a chance I will try for more detail at some point.
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Author: tedthedog 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 10:50 AM
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The returns have been great, but I still don't understand the two drawdowns of 80%, Great Recession and the Pandemic, but working on it (see below)
It could be a very interesting company if those drawdowns in share price can be understood and turns out they're not correlated to the health of the company.

Part of the drawdown as characterized in USD may be due to Krone/USD exchange rates. But that's only 20% or so, whereas the total drawdowns were about 80%

From https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-...
we have following currency info:

USD/Krone
Jan 2007 6.37
May 2008 5.06
A 20% drop


April 2020 10.42
May 2021 8.30
A 20% drop

#-------------------------------------------------------------------

Also fwiw the Oslo Bors All-Share had significant drops of 53% in the Great Recession and about 30% in The Pandemcic.
But why should this should greatly affect an insurance company?
https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/stock-market

2007: 570
2008: 270
A 53% drop

Jan 13 2020 1053
May 16 2020 725
A 32% drop
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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 12:37 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
They had poor insurance results in 2018 and worse ones in 2019. I imagine that will have impacted sentiment in 2020. The 2020 results showed that they had addressed this in large part, with much better results. I first bought in July 2020.
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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 12:53 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 2
From the 2024 annual report.

“For all markets, the company focuses on commercial lines of business, public sector and affinity schemes,

The commercial segment includes both small and large companies and affinity programs. We tailor insurance solutions for large companies and can develop own concepts through affinity programs as well as facilitate solutions for cross-border clients.
The public segment consists primarily of municipalities and county authorities. Protector is the largest insurance carrier within municipal insurance in Scandinavia, insuring more than 600 municipalities and county councils. In UK public sector and housing, Protector is currently one of the three largest insurance carriers with more than 420 clients, whereof 181 within local authorities and 140 housing associations.”

They have been in the UK since 2011. The insurance results by country for the last two years are shown below ie investment results excluded from these figures, in NOK m

2024 2023

UK 960 618
Sweden 417 230
Norway 308 55
Denmark -282 176

They very recently entered France, writing their first policies to start from January 2025. The opportunity in France is about as large as the UK I would think and could clearly have a significant effect on growth for some years. It will of course take some time to build a business in France which will initially be loss making. The nascent French operation is being supported by staff from other countries.

They pay dividends but they tend to be the last item to spend money on after ensuring they have a good solvency ratio and can support business growth where they believe it is profitable. This has meant recently that they pay a final dividend and one or two quarterly dividends depending on circumstances. It is worth noting that dividends are quoted before withholding tax.


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Author: tedthedog 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 2:13 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 2
You're right, the Pandemic one isn't strictly the Pandemic, they lost money in 2018, and their share price also dropped roughly 50% over 2018. I almost didn't believe those drawdowns but they're real.
https://protectorforsikring.no/getfile.php/131635-...

Great returns, but a wild ride.
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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 03/24/2025 3:18 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Since 2020 the ride has been almost serene......
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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 201 
Subject: Re: Protector Forsikring ASA (PROT.OL)
Date: 04/23/2025 1:34 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I am not sure if anyone was interested in this but just in case.

q1 results announced today after the market closed.

Combined ratio 85.9% (91.2)
• Gross written premium growth 19% (12), 17% (9) in local currencies
• Total investment return including insurance finance NOK 536m (372)
• Profit for the period NOK 740m (456)
• Earnings per share NOK 9.0 (5.5)
• Solvency ratio 222% (196), post dividend

Premium growth in all countries but with France being a new area the growth is enhanced for that reason.

deucetoace
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